Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
5–0 · AP #10
vs
Arizona State
3–2
3:30 PM ET2:30 PM CTJones AT&T StadiumLubbock, TX
Partly cloudy58°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 7%
At kickoff · 2:30 PM CT · Updated 3:15 PM CT · National Weather Service
Lubbock · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy58°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 7%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
93%
Texas Tech win probability
Arizona State 7%
Texas Tech by 20.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Texas Tech's case
Texas Tech's defense is in the 85th percentile for allowed per play this season. Arizona State's offense is in the 27th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Arizona State's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against Texas Tech's defense.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives Texas Tech a 93% chance to win and predicts Texas Tech by 20.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Will Hammond · 96% of charted pass attempts
112 of 116 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 96 short · 16 deep · 4 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (44%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 9.4 over 48 attempts with a result.
The Texas Tech offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
97/142 · 68% season
Last game
Colorado · Oct 3, 2026: 17/26, 134 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Last game
Colorado · Oct 3, 2026: 17 carries, 88 yds, 0 TD
RB · 5 games
Last game
Colorado · Oct 3, 2026: 3 rec, 26 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will HammondQB | 5 | 97 / 142 | 1,102 | 7.8 | 5 | 5 |
| Thomas CastellanosQB | 3 | 2 / 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 2 | 1 |
| Kirk FrancisQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter BoleyQB | 5 | 99 / 158 | 1,229 | 7.8 | 12 | 3 |
| Mikey KeeneQB | 1 | 4 / 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake FetteQB | 1 | 1 / 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyson BrownRB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Texas Tech's line averages 304.5 lbs against Arizona State's 279.4 lbs front — an edge of 25.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech OLTexas Tech OL vs Arizona State DL | 304.5 lbs | 279.4 lbs |
| Arizona State OLArizona State OL vs Texas Tech DL | 316.7 lbs | 310.6 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Texas Tech: solid line, circles · Arizona State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 3 · 64 recorded plays
W 29–7
31%
Success rate
−0.15
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 54 recorded plays
W 49–14
67%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play
Sep 18 · 61 recorded plays
W 28–26
48%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play
Mack Leftwich
career +34.9 SP+ offense
Rob Greene
Co-defensive coordinator · career +19.2 SP+ defense
Shiel Wood
career +19.2 SP+ defense
Kenny Dillingham
career +0.7 SP+ overall
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Marcus Arroyo
career +27.1 SP+ offense
Brian Ward
career +26.1 SP+ defense
2025 · Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22
Mountain America Stadium
2024 · Texas Tech 30, Arizona State 22
Jones AT&T Stadium
2017 · Texas Tech 52, Arizona State 45
Jones AT&T Stadium
2016 · Arizona State 68, Texas Tech 55
Mountain America Stadium
2013 · Texas Tech 37, Arizona State 23
Neutral site · Qualcomm Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date