Saturday, October 17

Navy

2–3

UTSA

5–1

8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTAlamodomeSan Antonio, TX

Weather

Played indoors at Alamodome.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

21%

Navy win probability

UTSA 79%

UTSA by 11.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Navy's case

Navy's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Navy's offense was in the 78th percentile for points per game last season. UTSA's defense was in the 32nd percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · UTSA's answer

UTSA's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

UTSA's offense was in the 65th percentile for per play last season. Navy's defense was in the 18th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Navy a 21% chance to win and predicts UTSA by 11.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Navy has the ball

Navy offense: 87th
UTSA defense: 57th

Show the underlying numbers

Navy offensive PPA per play: 0.3087th percentile · #12 nationally
UTSA PPA allowed per play: 0.1457th percentile · #58 nationally
Navy: 49%94th percentile · #9 nationally
UTSA success rate allowed: 38%79th percentile · #30 nationally
Navy points per game: 31.578th percentile · #31 nationally
UTSA points allowed per game: 28.832nd percentile · #92 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Navy offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 48.7%

UTSA defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.33
Rush success allowed: 43.7%

When UTSA has the ball

UTSA offense: 65th
Navy defense: 18th

Show the underlying numbers

UTSA offensive PPA per play: 0.2065th percentile · #41 nationally
Navy PPA allowed per play: 0.2118th percentile · #108 nationally
UTSA success rate: 44%65th percentile · #48 nationally
Navy success rate allowed: 40%61st percentile · #54 nationally
UTSA points per game: 35.590th percentile · #14 nationally
Navy points allowed per game: 25.049th percentile · #69 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

UTSA offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.31
Rush success: 46.5%

Navy defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.30
Rush success allowed: 42.2%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Blake Horvath · 85% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 49%
Usage: charted in this direction: 62 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.3; over 61 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 56%; over 61 attempts with a result

126 of 130 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 11 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 11 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 94 short · 32 deep · 4 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (49%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 21.9 over 26 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Navy offense in 2025

Blake Horvath

QB · 12 games

97/159 · 61% season

Passing yards: 1,580
Touchdowns: 12
Interceptions: 6

Last game

Cincinnati · Jan 2, 2026: 9/15, 108 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Blake Horvath

QB · 12 games

Carries: 224
Rushing yards: 1,200
Touchdowns: 16

Last game

Cincinnati · Jan 2, 2026: 16 carries, 53 yds, 1 TD

Eli Heidenreich

WR · 13 games

Receptions: 51
Receiving yards: 941
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Cincinnati · Jan 2, 2026: 5 rec, 64 yds, 1 TD

Navy player tables

Who is producing

Navy player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Navy — Passing production
Player
Blake HorvathQB	12	97 / 159	1,580	9.9	12	6
Braxton WoodsonQB	4	9 / 19	110	5.8	0	0
Jackson GutierrezQB	2	0 / 3	0	0.0	0	0
Eli HeidenreichWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

UTSA player tables

Who is producing

UTSA player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

UTSA — Passing production
Player
Owen McCownQB	13	276 / 409	2,990	7.3	30	7
Brandon TennisonQB	5	20 / 34	199	5.9	2	0
David AmadorWR	2	2 / 2	25	12.5	2	0
AJ WilsonWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Navy's line averages 287.8 lbs against UTSA's 280.0 lbs front — an edge of 7.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Navy OLNavy OL vs UTSA DL	287.8 lbs	280.0 lbs
UTSA OLUTSA OL vs Navy DL	308.5 lbs	267.0 lbs

Navy
UTSA

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Navy

Points per game: 31.5#31 nationally · 78th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 25.0#69 nationally · 49th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 97% of 2024 PPA returns · 93rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 194 of 194 with a class year

UTSA

Points per game: 35.5#14 nationally · 90th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 28.8#92 nationally · 32nd percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 96% of 2024 PPA returns · 92nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 120 of 120 with a class year

Recruiting

Navy

2025 signing class · #130 nationally: 4th percentile · 64.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #132 nationally: 3rd percentile · −2.11 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025: not on file

UTSA

2025 signing class · #107 nationally: 21st percentile · 138.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #97 nationally: 29th percentile · −0.58 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #65 nationally: 52nd percentile · 662.1

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Navy: solid line, circles · UTSA: dashed line, squares

Navy

Offense · 2025: 33.6 · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 27.9 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.5 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 64.8 pts · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 97% returning · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

UTSA

Offense · SP+ 2025: 33.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 30.0 · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.4 · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 138.8 pts · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 96% returning · 92nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Navy's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Jan 2
vs Cincinnati · neutral site
W 35–13
Play stats pending
Dec 13 · 67 recorded plays
vs Army · neutral site
W 17–16
45%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
Nov 27 · 71 recorded plays
at Memphis
W 28–17
45%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Navy

Head coach: Brian Newberry
career −1.3 SP+ overall
Photo: The White House, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Drew Cronic
career +31.6 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Eric Lewis
career +35.2 SP+ defense; Ricky Brown
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.2 SP+ defense
Photo: Jeffrey Beall, CC BY-SA 3.0

UTSA

Head coach: Jeff Traylor
career +2.6 SP+ overall
Photo: Kinu Panda, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Rick Bowie
career +28.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jess Loepp
career +30.4 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

No meetings since 2000

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Navy: 13 games
UTSA: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Navy's offense leads its matchup in scoring

UTSA's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Navy has the ball

Navy offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

UTSA defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When UTSA has the ball

UTSA offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Navy defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Blake Horvath

Blake Horvath

Eli Heidenreich

Navy player production

UTSA player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Navy

UTSA

Recruiting

Navy

UTSA

Season percentile profiles

Navy

UTSA

Navy's recent games

vs Cincinnati · neutral site

vs Army · neutral site

at Memphis

The coaching staff

Navy

UTSA

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources