2026 Navy vs 2026 UTSA — Saturday Bias

Hypothetical

UTSA by 8.7

73% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

NavyPreseason baseline −4.3In-season results −0.6

UTSAPreseason baseline +2.7In-season results +1.1

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Navy	2026 UTSA
Offensive / play	0.2064th percentile	0.2374th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0936th percentile	0.0648th percentile
Points per game	27.039th percentile5 games	31.357th percentile6 games
per game	23.450th percentile5 games	25.832nd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Navy2026 UTSA

Momentum

Navy→ steady (−9 pctl over 3 seasons)

UTSA→ steady (−1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Navy

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 2nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 49th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+46)

2026 UTSA

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 52nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+20)

Campus distance

1415 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Navy OL vs 2026 UTSA DL	287.8 lbs	280.0 lbs
2026 UTSA OL vs 2026 Navy DL	308.5 lbs	267.0 lbs

2026 Navy line yards 3.74 · 2026 UTSA stuff rate 17.1%

2026 UTSA line yards 3.11 · 2026 Navy stuff rate 19.1%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · no meetings since 2000

These programs haven't met since 2000.

Coaching & program context

2026 Navy

Brian Newberry

Drew Cronic

career average +31.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Wing-T (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 20% of its run–pass plays, 1st percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.4 plays a game, 37th percentile)

Eric Lewis
Ricky Brown (co-DC)

career average +35.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 UTSA

Jeff Traylor

Rick Bowie

career average +28.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Up-tempo spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 53rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.3 plays a game, 49th percentile)

Jess Loepp

career average +30.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.