Friday, October 16

Tulane

2–3

Memphis

5–1

7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTYulman StadiumNew Orleans, LA

Weather

Slight chance of rain82°FNE 2 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 15%

At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:57 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

New Orleans · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Slight chance of rain82°FNE 2 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 15%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

35%

Tulane win probability

Memphis 65%

Memphis by 5.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Tulane's case

Tulane's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Tulane's offense was in the 65th percentile for per play last season. Memphis's defense was in the 40th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Memphis's answer

Memphis's offense leads its matchup in

Memphis's offense was in the 72nd percentile for success rate last season. Tulane's defense was in the 19th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Tulane a 35% chance to win and predicts Memphis by 5.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.6 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Tulane has the ball

Tulane offense: 65th
Memphis defense: 40th

Show the underlying numbers

Tulane offensive PPA per play: 0.2065th percentile · #41 nationally
Memphis PPA allowed per play: 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
Tulane success rate: 45%70th percentile · #42 nationally
Memphis success rate allowed: 41%56th percentile · #60 nationally
Tulane points per game: 27.750th percentile · #68 nationally
Memphis per game: 23.262nd percentile · #52 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Tulane offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.23
Rush success: 46.4%

Memphis defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.31
Rush success allowed: 37.6%

When Memphis has the ball

Memphis offense: 82nd
Tulane defense: 50th

Show the underlying numbers

Memphis offensive PPA per play: 0.2582nd percentile · #22 nationally
Tulane PPA allowed per play: 0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
Memphis success rate: 45%72nd percentile · #39 nationally
Tulane success rate allowed: 45%19th percentile · #110 nationally
Memphis points per game: 32.582nd percentile · #25 nationally
Tulane points allowed per game: 23.957th percentile · #58 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Memphis offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.30
Rush success: 46.7%

Tulane defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.24
Rush success allowed: 37.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jake Retzlaff · 91% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 40%
Usage: charted in this direction: 131 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.5; over 131 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 63%; over 131 attempts with a result

328 of 334 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 13 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 296 short · 32 deep · 6 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Tulane offense in 2025

Jake Retzlaff

QB · 14 games

242/391 · 62% season

Passing yards: 3,168
Touchdowns: 15
Interceptions: 7

Last game

Ole Miss · Dec 20, 2025: 20/35, 306 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Jake Retzlaff

QB · 14 games

Carries: 129
Rushing yards: 634
Touchdowns: 16

Last game

Ole Miss · Dec 20, 2025: 11 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD

Shazz Preston

WR · 14 games

Receptions: 43
Receiving yards: 723
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Ole Miss · Dec 20, 2025: 5 rec, 125 yds, 0 TD

Tulane player tables

Who is producing

Tulane player production

2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view

Tulane — Passing production
Player
Jake RetzlaffQB	14	242 / 391	3,168	8.1	15	7
Brendan SullivanQB	9	19 / 30	222	7.4	2	2
Jimmy CallowayWR	2	1 / 2	42	21.0	1	0
Omari HayesWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Memphis player tables

Who is producing

Memphis player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Memphis — Passing production
Player
Brendon LewisQB	13	253 / 368	2,673	7.3	16	7
AJ HillQB	2	19 / 32	223	7.0	1	1
Arrington MaidenQB	4	5 / 10	59	5.9	0	0
Brady KluseWR	1	1 / 1	14	14.0	0	0
C.J. SmithWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Tulane's line averages 301.6 lbs against Memphis's 275.4 lbs front — an edge of 26.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Tulane OLTulane OL vs Memphis DL	301.6 lbs	275.4 lbs
Memphis OLMemphis OL vs Tulane DL	307.5 lbs	275.4 lbs

Tulane
Memphis

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Tulane

Points per game: 27.7#68 nationally · 50th percentile · 14 games
Points allowed per game: 23.9#58 nationally · 57th percentile · 14 games
Returning production: 15% of 2024 PPA returns · 10th percentile
Upperclassmen: 33% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Memphis

Points per game: 32.5#25 nationally · 82nd percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 23.2#52 nationally · 62nd percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 12% of 2024 PPA returns · 4th percentile
Upperclassmen: 46% · 121 of 121 with a class year

Recruiting

Tulane

2025 signing class · #74 nationally: 46th percentile · 175.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #74 nationally: 46th percentile · −0.06 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #68 nationally: 50th percentile · 650.9

Memphis

2025 signing class · #60 nationally: 56th percentile · 194.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #62 nationally: 55th percentile · 0.10 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #59 nationally: 56th percentile · 668.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Tulane: solid line, circles · Memphis: dashed line, squares

Tulane

Offense · 2025: 32.4 · 75th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 27.6 · 48th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.6 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 175.3 pts · 46th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 15% returning · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Memphis

Offense · SP+ 2025: 34.3 · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 28.3 · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.5 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 194.4 pts · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 12% returning · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Tulane's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 20
at Ole Miss
L 10–41
Play stats pending
Dec 5 · 74 recorded plays
vs North Texas
W 34–21
46%
Success rate
0.22
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 62 recorded plays
vs Charlotte
W 27–0
61%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Tulane

Head coach: Will Hall
First season as Tulane's head coach · career −14.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Russ Callaway
career +28.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Nate Fuqua
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.8 SP+ defense; Tayler Polk
career +31.8 SP+ defense

Memphis

Head coach: Charles Huff
First season as Memphis's head coach · career −0.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: David Weeks
Co-offensive coordinator · career +26.8 SP+ offense; Kevin Decker
career +26.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Lance Guidry
career +24.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Summer Richard-Boudreaux, CC BY 1.0

Head-to-head

Memphis leads 14–6 since 2000

2025 · Tulane 38, Memphis 32
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2024 · Memphis 34, Tulane 24
Yulman Stadium
2023 · Tulane 31, Memphis 21
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2022 · Tulane 38, Memphis 28
Yulman Stadium
2021 · Memphis 33, Tulane 28
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2020 · Tulane 35, Memphis 21
Yulman Stadium
2019 · Memphis 47, Tulane 17
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2018 · Tulane 40, Memphis 24
Yulman Stadium
2017 · Memphis 56, Tulane 26
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2016 · Memphis 24, Tulane 14
Yulman Stadium
2015 · Memphis 41, Tulane 13
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2014 · Memphis 38, Tulane 7
Yulman Stadium
2012 · Memphis 37, Tulane 23
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2011 · Memphis 33, Tulane 17
Caesars Superdome
2008 · Memphis 45, Tulane 6
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2007 · Memphis 28, Tulane 27
Caesars Superdome
2004 · Memphis 49, Tulane 24
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2003 · Memphis 41, Tulane 9
Caesars Superdome
2002 · Memphis 38, Tulane 10
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2000 · Tulane 37, Memphis 14

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Tulane: 14 games
Memphis: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Tulane's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Memphis's offense leads its matchup in success rate

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Tulane has the ball

Tulane offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Memphis defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Memphis has the ball

Memphis offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Tulane defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Jake Retzlaff

Jake Retzlaff

Shazz Preston

Tulane player production

Memphis player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Tulane

Memphis

Recruiting

Tulane

Memphis

Season percentile profiles

Tulane

Memphis

Tulane's recent games

at Ole Miss

vs North Texas

vs Charlotte

The coaching staff

Tulane

Memphis

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Memphis's offense leads its matchup in