2026 Wisconsin vs 2026 Penn State
Hypothetical
55% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Wisconsin Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.3, 45th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Offense · SP+ 2026: 30.0, 68th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wisconsin Defense · SP+ 2026: 15.8, 91st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Defense · SP+ 2026: 20.5, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wisconsin Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wisconsin Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 186.8 pts, 44th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Penn State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 194.4 pts, 53rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Wisconsin Experience · returning production 2026: 31% returning, 36th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Penn State Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning, 10th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Wisconsin | 2026 Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1753rd percentile | 0.1651st percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.1297th percentile | 0.0648th percentile |
| Points per game | 31.658th percentile5 games | 30.553rd percentile6 games |
| per game | 16.683rd percentile5 games | 18.577th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 66th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 73rd percentile
Campus distance
615 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Wisconsin OL vs 2026 Penn State DL | 317.7 lbs | 272.9 lbs |
| 2026 Penn State OL vs 2026 Wisconsin DL | 310.7 lbs | 302.4 lbs |
2026 Wisconsin line yards 3.04 · 2026 Penn State stuff rate 21.5%
2026 Penn State line yards 2.77 · 2026 Wisconsin stuff rate 10.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Penn State leads 10–6 since 2000
Wisconsin has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wisconsin 24–20 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2024 | Wisconsin 13–28 Penn State | Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin home |
| 2021 | Wisconsin 10–16 Penn State | Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin home |
| 2018 | Wisconsin 10–22 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2016 | Wisconsin 31–38 Penn State | Neutral site |
| 2013 | Wisconsin 24–31 Penn State | Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin home |
| 2012 | Wisconsin 21–24 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2011 | Wisconsin 45–7 Penn State | Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin home |
| 2008 | Wisconsin 7–48 Penn State | Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin home |
| 2007 | Wisconsin 7–38 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2006 | Wisconsin 13–3 Penn State | Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin home |
| 2005 | Wisconsin 14–35 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2004 | Wisconsin 16–3 Penn State | Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin home |
| 2003 | Wisconsin 30–23 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2002 | Wisconsin 31–34 Penn State | Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin home |
| 2001 | Wisconsin 18–6 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Luke Fickell
OC
- Jeff Grimes
career average +29.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 54th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.0 plays a game, 14th percentile)
DC
- Mike Tressel
career average +17.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Matt Campbell (First season as Penn State's head coach)
OC
- Taylor Mouser
career average +29.5 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 50th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)
DC
- D'Anton Lynn
career average +21.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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