01 · Penn State's case
Penn State's defense leads its matchup in
Penn State's defense is in the 77th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Michigan's offense is in the 26th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbersSaturday, October 17
Compare these teams
Penn State
3–3
at
Michigan
3–2
3:30 PM ETMichigan StadiumAnn Arbor, MI
Weather
Clear51°FNW 12 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 10:49 AM ET · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Ann Arbor · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear51°FNW 12 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Game forecast
46%
Penn State win probability
Michigan 54%
Michigan by 1.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · Michigan's answer
Michigan's defense leads its matchup in allowed
Michigan's defense is in the 96th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Penn State's offense is in the 35th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives Penn State a 46% chance to win and predicts Michigan by 1.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.
See the forecastWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Penn State has the ball
- Penn State offense
- 51st
- Michigan defense
- 96th
Show the underlying numbers
- Penn State offensive per play
- 0.1651st percentile · #67 nationally
- Michigan PPA allowed per play
- −0.1196th percentile · #6 nationally
- Penn State success rate
- 42%35th percentile · #90 nationally
- Michigan success rate allowed
- 33%96th percentile · #7 nationally
- Penn State points per game
- 30.553rd percentile · #65 nationally
- Michigan points allowed per game
- 15.886th percentile · #20 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
Penn State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.29
- Rush success
- 37.4%
Michigan defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.14
- Rush success allowed
- 32.1%
When Michigan has the ball
- Michigan offense
- 32nd
- Penn State defense
- 48th
Show the underlying numbers
- Michigan offensive PPA per play
- 0.0932nd percentile · #91 nationally
- Penn State PPA allowed per play
- 0.0648th percentile · #64 nationally
- Michigan success rate
- 42%39th percentile · #84 nationally
- Penn State success rate allowed
- 39%58th percentile · #59 nationally
- Michigan points per game
- 23.026th percentile · #101 nationally
- Penn State points allowed per game
- 18.577th percentile · #32 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Michigan offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.15
- Rush success
- 40.6%
Penn State defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.28
- Rush success allowed
- 40.5%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Rocco Becht · 74% of charted pass attempts
Throwing left
- Share of charted plays
- 35%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 46 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 7.2
- over 45 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 69%
- over 45 attempts with a result
131 of 134 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 6 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 6 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 106 short · 25 deep · 3 not stated
Who's driving the offense?
The Penn State offense in 2026
Rocco Becht
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
104/166 · 63% season
- Passing yards
- 1,397
- Touchdowns
- 11
- Interceptions
- 3
Last game
USC · Oct 10, 2026: 21/32, 289 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
Carson Hansen
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
- Carries
- 57
- Rushing yards
- 227
- Touchdowns
- 3
Last game
USC · Oct 10, 2026: 14 carries, 28 yds, 1 TD
Chase Sowell
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
- Receptions
- 23
- Receiving yards
- 359
- Touchdowns
- 2
Last game
USC · Oct 10, 2026: 4 rec, 95 yds, 0 TD
Penn State player tables
Who is producing
Penn State player production
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco BechtQB | 6 | 104 / 166 | 1,397 | 8.4 | 11 | 3 |
| Alex ManskeQB | 2 | 9 / 14 | 102 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Connor BarryQB | 2 | 2 / 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Michigan player tables
Who is producing
Michigan player production
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce UnderwoodQB | 5 | 67 / 113 | 881 | 7.8 | 5 | 4 |
| Tommy CarrQB | 1 | 2 / 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
Penn State's line averages 310.7 lbs against Michigan's 277.2 lbs front — an edge of 33.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Penn State OLPenn State OL vs Michigan DL | 310.7 lbs | 277.2 lbs |
| Michigan OLMichigan OL vs Penn State DL | 307.7 lbs | 272.9 lbs |
- Penn State
- Michigan
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Penn State
- Points per game
- 30.5#65 nationally · 53rd percentile · 6 games
- Points allowed per game
- 18.5#32 nationally · 77th percentile · 6 games
- Returning production
- 8% of 2025 PPA returns · 10th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 38% · 112 of 112 with a class year
Michigan
- Points per game
- 23.0#101 nationally · 26th percentile · 5 games
- Points allowed per game
- 15.8#20 nationally · 86th percentile · 5 games
- Returning production
- 69% of 2025 PPA returns · 84th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 53% · 118 of 118 with a class year
Recruiting
Penn State
- 2026 signing class · #65 nationally
- 53rd percentile · 194.4 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #24 nationally
- 83rd percentile · 0.77 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #26 nationally
- 82nd percentile · 774.0
Michigan
- 2026 signing class · #12 nationally
- 92nd percentile · 270.1 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #12 nationally
- 92nd percentile · 1.61 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #11 nationally
- 93rd percentile · 890.0
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Penn State Offense · SP+ 2026: 30.0, 68th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 51st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Penn State Defense · SP+ 2026: 20.5, 80th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.4, 96th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Penn State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Penn State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 194.4 pts, 53rd percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 270.1 pts, 92nd percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Penn State Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning, 10th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
- Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 84th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Penn State: solid line, circles · Michigan: dashed line, squares
Penn State
- Offense · 2026
- 30.0 · 68th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 20.5 · 80th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- 0.1 · 50th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 194.4 pts · 53rd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 8% returning · 10th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Michigan
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 26.6 · 51st percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 13.4 · 96th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- −0.1 · 28th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 270.1 pts · 92nd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 69% returning · 84th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Penn State's recent games
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 65 recorded plays
vs USC
L 23–31
38%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Oct 2 · 54 recorded plays
at Northwestern
L 13–34
43%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 68 recorded plays
vs Wisconsin
L 20–24
25%
Success rate
−0.17
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Penn State
- Head coach
Matt Campbell
First season as Penn State's head coach · career +7.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
- Offensive coordinator
Taylor Mouser
career +29.5 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Michigan
- Head coach
Kyle Whittingham
First season as Michigan's head coach · career +12.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
- Offensive coordinator
- Defensive coordinator
Jay Hill
career +22.6 SP+ defense
Head-to-head
Michigan leads 13–7 since 2000
2023 · Michigan 24, Penn State 15
Beaver Stadium
2022 · Michigan 41, Penn State 17
Michigan Stadium
2021 · Michigan 21, Penn State 17
Beaver Stadium
2020 · Penn State 27, Michigan 17
Michigan Stadium
2019 · Penn State 28, Michigan 21
Beaver Stadium
2018 · Michigan 42, Penn State 7
Michigan Stadium
2017 · Penn State 42, Michigan 13
Beaver Stadium
2016 · Michigan 49, Penn State 10
Michigan Stadium
2015 · Michigan 28, Penn State 16
Beaver Stadium
2014 · Michigan 18, Penn State 13
Michigan Stadium
2013 · Penn State 43, Michigan 40
Beaver Stadium
2010 · Penn State 41, Michigan 31
Beaver Stadium
2009 · Penn State 35, Michigan 10
Michigan Stadium
2008 · Penn State 46, Michigan 17
Beaver Stadium
2007 · Michigan 14, Penn State 9
Michigan Stadium
2006 · Michigan 17, Penn State 10
Beaver Stadium
2005 · Michigan 27, Penn State 25
Michigan Stadium
2002 · Michigan 27, Penn State 24
Michigan Stadium
2001 · Michigan 20, Penn State 0
Beaver Stadium
2000 · Michigan 33, Penn State 11
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
- Penn State: 6 games
- Michigan: 5 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD