2026 Western Kentucky vs 2026 Sam Houston

Published

Western Kentucky by 0.1

50% to win

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r

View scouting report

Why this number

Western KentuckyIn-season results −9.8Preseason baseline −0.1

Sam HoustonPreseason baseline −12.7In-season results +0.2

Sam Houston home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Western Kentucky	2026 Sam Houston
Offensive / play	0.0318th percentile	0.0522nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1914th percentile	0.1328th percentile
Points per game	22.221st percentile6 games	22.824th percentile5 games
per game	35.24th percentile6 games	26.231st percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Western Kentucky2026 Sam Houston

Momentum

Western Kentucky↘ falling (−27 pctl over 3 seasons)

Sam Houston↘ falling (−17 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Western Kentucky

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 23rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 15th percentile

Matching its talent (−7)

2026 Sam Houston

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 14th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 9th percentile

Matching its talent (−4)

Campus distance

675 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Western Kentucky OL vs 2026 Sam Houston DL	311.2 lbs	271.7 lbs
2026 Sam Houston OL vs 2026 Western Kentucky DL	307.9 lbs	276.4 lbs

2026 Western Kentucky line yards 2.77 · 2026 Sam Houston stuff rate 19.2%

2026 Sam Houston line yards 2.70 · 2026 Western Kentucky stuff rate 15.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Western Kentucky leads 3–0 since 2000

Western Kentucky has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Western Kentucky 41–24 Sam Houston	Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Western Kentucky home
2024	Western Kentucky 31–14 Sam Houston	Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Sam Houston home
2023	Western Kentucky 28–23 Sam Houston	Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Western Kentucky home

Coaching & program context

2026 Western Kentucky

Tyson Helton

Bodie Reeder
Joe Bernardi (co-OC)

career average +19.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 80th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.8 plays a game, 85th percentile)

Davis Merritt

career average +28.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Sam Houston

Phil Longo

Zack Patterson

career average +15.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 93rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 53rd percentile)

Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay

career average +41.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.