Wednesday, October 14

Western Kentucky

2–4

Sam Houston

1–4

8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTElliott T. Bowers StadiumHuntsville, TX

Weather

Clear84°FSE 9 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:21 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Huntsville · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear84°FSE 9 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

50%

Western Kentucky win probability

Sam Houston 50%

Western Kentucky by 0.1

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Sam Houston's case

Sam Houston's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Sam Houston's offense is in the 24th percentile for points per game this season. Western Kentucky's defense is in the 4th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Western Kentucky's answer

Western Kentucky has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Sam Houston's offense.

03 · What could swing it

Western Kentucky leans on its top passer

Western Kentucky's leading passer has thrown 64% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Western Kentucky has the ball

Western Kentucky offense: 18th
Sam Houston defense: 28th

Show the underlying numbers

Western Kentucky offensive per play: 0.0318th percentile · #111 nationally
Sam Houston PPA allowed per play: 0.1328th percentile · #95 nationally
Western Kentucky: 38%12th percentile · #121 nationally
Sam Houston success rate allowed: 42%31st percentile · #95 nationally
Western Kentucky points per game: 22.221st percentile · #108 nationally
Sam Houston points allowed per game: 26.231st percentile · #95 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Western Kentucky offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 41.4%

Sam Houston defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.26
Rush success allowed: 51.5%

When Sam Houston has the ball

Sam Houston offense: 22nd
Western Kentucky defense: 14th

Show the underlying numbers

Sam Houston offensive PPA per play: 0.0522nd percentile · #105 nationally
Western Kentucky PPA allowed per play: 0.1914th percentile · #118 nationally
Sam Houston success rate: 41%30th percentile · #97 nationally
Western Kentucky success rate allowed: 42%41st percentile · #82 nationally
Sam Houston points per game: 22.824th percentile · #105 nationally
Western Kentucky points allowed per game: 35.24th percentile · #132 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Sam Houston offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 41.0%

Western Kentucky defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.53
Rush success allowed: 49.8%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Rodney Tisdale Jr. · 64% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 50%
Usage: charted in this direction: 58 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.6; over 57 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 67%; over 57 attempts with a result

115 of 118 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 104 short · 11 deep · 3 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (50%). Left gives the most yards per attempt: 9.5 over 31 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Western Kentucky offense in 2026

Rodney Tisdale Jr.

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

78/117 · 67% season

Passing yards: 857
Touchdowns: 4
Interceptions: 2

Last game

New Mexico State · Oct 1, 2026: 29/40, 314 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Ajay Allen

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 72
Rushing yards: 307
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Missouri State · Oct 8, 2026: 13 carries, 105 yds, 2 TD

Jonathan Stafford Jr.

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 36
Receiving yards: 338
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Missouri State · Oct 8, 2026: 6 rec, 72 yds, 1 TD

Western Kentucky player tables

Who is producing

Western Kentucky player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Western Kentucky — Passing production
Player
Rodney Tisdale Jr.QB	4	78 / 117	857	7.3	4	2
Brock GlennQB	5	53 / 98	536	5.5	4	2
Caleb McMickleQB	1	1 / 2	3	1.5	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Sam Houston player tables

Who is producing

Sam Houston player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Sam Houston — Passing production
Player
Landyn LockeQB	5	116 / 175	1,306	7.5	11	3
Brett HollowayQB	2	3 / 5	64	12.8	1	1

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Western Kentucky's line averages 311.2 lbs against Sam Houston's 271.7 lbs front — an edge of 39.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Western Kentucky OLWestern Kentucky OL vs Sam Houston DL	311.2 lbs	271.7 lbs
Sam Houston OLSam Houston OL vs Western Kentucky DL	307.9 lbs	276.4 lbs

Western Kentucky
Sam Houston

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Western Kentucky

Points per game: 22.2#108 nationally · 21st percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 35.2#132 nationally · 4th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 84% of 2025 PPA returns · 93rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 59% · 151 of 151 with a class year

Sam Houston

Points per game: 22.8#105 nationally · 24th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 26.2#95 nationally · 31st percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 58% of 2025 PPA returns · 67th percentile
Upperclassmen: 66% · 108 of 108 with a class year

Recruiting

Western Kentucky

2026 signing class · #81 nationally: 42nd percentile · 185.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #105 nationally: 24th percentile · −0.62 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #87 nationally: 37th percentile · 611.5

Sam Houston

2026 signing class · #126 nationally: 9th percentile · 161.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #122 nationally: 12th percentile · −1.00 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #117 nationally: 15th percentile · 554.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Western Kentucky: solid line, circles · Sam Houston: dashed line, squares

Western Kentucky

Offense · 2026: 20.3 · 23rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 33.6 · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 185.2 pts · 42nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 84% returning · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Sam Houston

Offense · SP+ 2026: 17.1 · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 33.3 · 14th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3 · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 161.2 pts · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 58% returning · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Western Kentucky's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 8 · 77 recorded plays
vs Missouri State
W 34–13
45%
Success rate
0.33
PPA / play
Oct 1 · 75 recorded plays
at New Mexico State
L 13–34
33%
Success rate
−0.21
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 37 recorded plays
vs Mercyhurst
vs FCS
W 52–7
54%
Success rate
0.61
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Western Kentucky

Head coach: Tyson Helton
career +1.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Bodie Reeder
career +19.8 SP+ offense; Joe Bernardi
Co-offensive coordinator · career +19.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Davis Merritt
career +28.6 SP+ defense

Sam Houston

Head coach: Phil Longo
career −27.8 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Zack Patterson
career +15.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
career +41.8 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Western Kentucky leads 3–0 since 2000

2025 · Western Kentucky 41, Sam Houston 24
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
2024 · Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
2023 · Western Kentucky 28, Sam Houston 23
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Western Kentucky: 6 games
Sam Houston: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Sam Houston's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Western Kentucky has no clear answer on this matchup

Western Kentucky leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Western Kentucky has the ball

Western Kentucky offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Sam Houston defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Sam Houston has the ball

Sam Houston offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Western Kentucky defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Rodney Tisdale Jr.

Ajay Allen

Jonathan Stafford Jr.

Western Kentucky player production

Sam Houston player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Western Kentucky

Sam Houston

Recruiting

Western Kentucky

Sam Houston

Season percentile profiles

Western Kentucky

Sam Houston

Western Kentucky's recent games

vs Missouri State

at New Mexico State

vs Mercyhurst

The coaching staff

Western Kentucky

Sam Houston

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources