2026 West Virginia vs 2026 Coastal Carolina

Hypothetical

West Virginia by 10.3

77% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

West VirginiaIn-season results −1.4Preseason baseline +1.1

Coastal CarolinaPreseason baseline −7.2In-season results −0.9

West Virginia home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 West Virginia	2026 Coastal Carolina
Offensive / play	0.1446th percentile	0.1239th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.2012th percentile	0.1134th percentile
Points per game	36.377th percentile6 games	25.233rd percentile6 games
per game	32.79th percentile6 games	24.345th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 West Virginia2026 Coastal Carolina

Momentum

West Virginia→ steady (−4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Coastal Carolina→ steady (−6 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 West Virginia

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 70th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 47th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−23)

2026 Coastal Carolina

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 27th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 20th percentile

Matching its talent (−6)

Campus distance

410 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 West Virginia OL vs 2026 Coastal Carolina DL	301.3 lbs	265.5 lbs
2026 Coastal Carolina OL vs 2026 West Virginia DL	314.4 lbs	272.1 lbs

2026 West Virginia line yards 3.20 · 2026 Coastal Carolina stuff rate 15.6%

2026 Coastal Carolina line yards 3.31 · 2026 West Virginia stuff rate 22.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · West Virginia leads 2–0 since 2000

West Virginia has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	West Virginia 31–24 Coastal Carolina	Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home
2010	West Virginia 31–0 Coastal Carolina	Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home

Coaching & program context

2026 West Virginia

Rich Rodriguez

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 25% of its run–pass plays, 3rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 77.5 plays a game, 97th percentile)

Zac Alley

career average +24.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Coastal Carolina

Ryan Beard

Nick Petrino

career average +25.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 45th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.3 plays a game, 34th percentile)

L. D. Scott

career average +34.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: no scheme listed

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.