Friday, October 16
Compare these teams
2–4
vs
App State
3–2
8:00 PM ETBrooks Stadium (SC)Conway, SC
Clear76°FSW 6 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 10%
At kickoff · 8:00 PM ET · Updated 3:02 PM ET · National Weather Service
Conway · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear76°FSW 6 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 10%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
56%
Coastal Carolina win probability
App State 44%
Coastal Carolina by 2.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · App State's case
App State's defense is in the 71st percentile for points allowed per game this season. Coastal Carolina's offense is in the 33rd percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Coastal Carolina's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against App State's defense.
03 · What could swing it
The model gives App State a 44% chance to win and predicts Coastal Carolina by 2.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Deuce Bailey · 88% of charted pass attempts
122 of 124 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 99 short · 23 deep · 2 not stated
The Coastal Carolina offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
93/173 · 54% season
Last game
Marshall · Oct 10, 2026: 8/18, 73 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Marshall · Oct 10, 2026: 8 carries, 21 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Marshall · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 15 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce BaileyQB | 6 | 93 / 173 | 1,340 | 7.7 | 13 | 3 |
| Tre GuerraQB | 1 | 1 / 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi SingletonQB | 5 | 101 / 155 | 1,278 | 8.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Henry HasselbeckQB | 3 | 6 / 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tommy UlatowskiQB | 1 | 4 / 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Coastal Carolina's line averages 314.4 lbs against App State's 269.6 lbs front — an edge of 44.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina OLCoastal Carolina OL vs App State DL | 314.4 lbs | 269.6 lbs |
| App State OLApp State OL vs Coastal Carolina DL | 302.3 lbs | 265.5 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Coastal Carolina: solid line, circles · App State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 63 recorded plays
W 27–21
29%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 67 recorded plays
L 24–31
42%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play
Sep 24 · 64 recorded plays
L 17–34
27%
Success rate
−0.07
PPA / play
Ryan Beard
career −10.7 SP+ overall
Nick Petrino
career +25.6 SP+ offense
L. D. Scott
career +34.8 SP+ defense
Dowell Loggains
career −11.4 SP+ overall
2025 · Coastal Carolina 45, App State 37
Kidd Brewer Stadium
2024 · Coastal Carolina 38, App State 24
Brooks Stadium (SC)
2023 · Coastal Carolina 27, App State 24
Kidd Brewer Stadium
2022 · Coastal Carolina 35, App State 28
Brooks Stadium (SC)
2021 · App State 30, Coastal Carolina 27
Kidd Brewer Stadium
2020 · Coastal Carolina 34, App State 23
Brooks Stadium (SC)
2019 · App State 56, Coastal Carolina 37
Kidd Brewer Stadium
2018 · App State 23, Coastal Carolina 7
Brooks Stadium (SC)
2017 · App State 37, Coastal Carolina 29
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date