2026 Washington vs 2026 Utah State

Hypothetical

Washington by 11.7

80% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

WashingtonPreseason baseline +17.1In-season results −6.5

Utah StatePreseason baseline +1.3In-season results +0.1

Washington home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Washington	2026 Utah State
Offensive / play	0.1343rd percentile	−0.084th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0070th percentile	0.0555th percentile
Points per game	26.236th percentile6 games	14.51st percentile6 games
per game	22.257th percentile6 games	23.548th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Washington2026 Utah State

Momentum

Washington→ steady (+6 pctl over 3 seasons)

Utah State→ steady (+3 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Washington

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 80th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 63rd percentile

Underperforming its talent (−18)

2026 Utah State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 25th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 24th percentile

Matching its talent (−1)

Campus distance

655 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Washington OL vs 2026 Utah State DL	321.6 lbs	290.0 lbs
2026 Utah State OL vs 2026 Washington DL	296.7 lbs	277.6 lbs

2026 Washington line yards 2.90 · 2026 Utah State stuff rate 20.0%

2026 Utah State line yards 2.99 · 2026 Washington stuff rate 26.1%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Washington leads 2–0 since 2000

Washington has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Washington 16–14 Utah State	Husky Stadium · Washington home
2015	Washington 31–17 Utah State	Husky Stadium · Washington home

Coaching & program context

2026 Washington

Jedd Fisch

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 56% of its run–pass plays, 96th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 40th percentile)

Ryan Walters

career average +19.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

2026 Utah State

Bronco Mendenhall

Robert Anae

career average +30.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 66th percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.8 plays a game, 23rd percentile)

Nick Howell

career average +32.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.