Saturday, October 24
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Texas State
2–3
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTBobcat Stadium (TX)San Marcos, TX
Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · Texas State's case
Texas State's defense is in the 34th percentile for allowed per play this season. Utah State's offense is in the 4th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Utah State's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against Texas State's defense.
03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Grady Brosterhous · 76% of charted pass attempts
92 of 97 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 82 short · 10 deep · 5 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (50%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 8.4 over 15 attempts with a result.
The Utah State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
78/142 · 55% season
Last game
Washington State · Oct 9, 2026: 11/26, 150 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Washington State · Oct 9, 2026: 12 carries, 11 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Last game
Washington State · Oct 9, 2026: 6 rec, 84 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grady BrosterhousQB | 6 | 78 / 142 | 914 | 6.4 | 7 | 6 |
| McCae HillsteadQB | 2 | 17 / 37 | 225 | 6.1 | 2 | 4 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonQB | 5 | 92 / 138 | 1,226 | 8.9 | 13 | 5 |
| Gavin ParkhurstQB | 2 | 8 / 9 | 114 | 12.7 | 1 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Utah State's line averages 296.7 lbs against Texas State's 267.1 lbs front — an edge of 29.6 lbs a man.
Texas State's front average is based on 20 of 25 linemen.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Utah State OLUtah State OL vs Texas State DL | 296.7 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
| Texas State OLTexas State OL vs Utah State DL | 322.7 lbs | 290.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Utah State: solid line, circles · Texas State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 9 · 60 recorded plays
W 17–16
30%
Success rate
−0.13
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 60 recorded plays
L 18–37
32%
Success rate
−0.07
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 61 recorded plays
W 21–10
43%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Robert Anae
career +30.8 SP+ offense
Nick Howell
career +32.1 SP+ defense
G.J. Kinne
career +2.0 SP+ overall
Jordan Shoemaker
Co-offensive coordinator · career +36.6 SP+ offense
Landon Keopple
career +36.6 SP+ offense
Matthew Gregg
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.4 SP+ defense
Will Windham
career +31.4 SP+ defense
2012 · Utah State 38, Texas State 7
Maverik Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date