2026 Wake Forest vs 2026 Purdue

Hypothetical

Wake Forest by 10.7

78% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Wake ForestIn-season results +9.0Preseason baseline +4.8

PurdueIn-season results +5.4Preseason baseline +0.2

Wake Forest home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Wake Forest	2026 Purdue
Offensive / play	0.3190th percentile	0.2580th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0842nd percentile	0.254th percentile
Points per game	36.880th percentile6 games	32.261st percentile6 games
per game	21.563rd percentile6 games	31.314th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Wake Forest2026 Purdue

Momentum

Wake Forest↗ rising (+44 pctl over 3 seasons)

Purdue↗ rising (+46 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Wake Forest

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 62nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 74th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+12)

2026 Purdue

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 54th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 55th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

Campus distance

470 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Wake Forest OL vs 2026 Purdue DL	302.7 lbs	279.3 lbs
2026 Purdue OL vs 2026 Wake Forest DL	307.5 lbs	273.0 lbs

2026 Wake Forest line yards 3.02 · 2026 Purdue stuff rate 14.6%

2026 Purdue line yards 2.99 · 2026 Wake Forest stuff rate 24.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Wake Forest leads 2–1 since 2000

Wake Forest has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Wake Forest 38–36 Purdue	Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home
2003	Wake Forest 10–16 Purdue	Wake Forest home
2002	Wake Forest 24–21 Purdue	Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home

Coaching & program context

2026 Wake Forest

Jake Dickert

Rob Ezell

career average +28.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 63rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.8 plays a game, 45th percentile)

Scottie Hazelton

career average +25.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Purdue

Barry Odom

Josh Henson

career average +34.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 57th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.3 plays a game, 71st percentile)

Kevin Kane

career average +28.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.