2026 Wake Forest vs 2026 Purdue
Hypothetical
72% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Wake Forest Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.6, 76th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Purdue Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.3, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.3, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Purdue Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.1, 27th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Purdue Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 217.9 pts, 72nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Purdue Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 203.3 pts, 61st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Wake Forest Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 19th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Purdue Experience · returning production 2026: 48% returning, 59th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Wake Forest | 2026 Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3190th percentile | 0.2580th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0842nd percentile | 0.254th percentile |
| Points per game | 36.880th percentile6 games | 32.261st percentile6 games |
| per game | 21.563rd percentile6 games | 31.314th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 62nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 54th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 55th percentile
Campus distance
470 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Wake Forest OL vs 2026 Purdue DL | 302.7 lbs | 279.3 lbs |
| 2026 Purdue OL vs 2026 Wake Forest DL | 307.5 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
2026 Wake Forest line yards 3.02 · 2026 Purdue stuff rate 14.6%
2026 Purdue line yards 2.99 · 2026 Wake Forest stuff rate 24.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Wake Forest leads 2–1 since 2000
Wake Forest has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wake Forest 38–36 Purdue | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2003 | Wake Forest 10–16 Purdue | Wake Forest home |
| 2002 | Wake Forest 24–21 Purdue | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jake Dickert
OC
- Rob Ezell
career average +28.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 63rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.8 plays a game, 45th percentile)
DC
- Scottie Hazelton
career average +25.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Barry Odom
OC
- Josh Henson
career average +34.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 57th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.3 plays a game, 71st percentile)
DC
- Kevin Kane
career average +28.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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