2026 Wake Forest vs 2026 NC State
Hypothetical
73% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Wake Forest Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.6, 76th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 NC State Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.2, 61st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.3, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 NC State Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.6, 23rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 NC State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 217.9 pts, 72nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 NC State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 210.3 pts, 65th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Wake Forest Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 19th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 NC State Experience · returning production 2026: 60% returning, 70th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Wake Forest | 2026 NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3190th percentile | 0.1962nd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0842nd percentile | 0.1620th percentile |
| Points per game | 36.880th percentile6 games | 33.064th percentile6 games |
| per game | 21.563rd percentile6 games | 27.724th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 62nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 72nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 42nd percentile
Campus distance
90 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Wake Forest OL vs 2026 NC State DL | 302.7 lbs | 273.8 lbs |
| 2026 NC State OL vs 2026 Wake Forest DL | 308.3 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
2026 Wake Forest line yards 3.02 · 2026 NC State stuff rate 23.6%
2026 NC State line yards 3.03 · 2026 Wake Forest stuff rate 24.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · NC State leads 14–13 since 2000
Wake Forest has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wake Forest 38–14 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2025 | Wake Forest 24–34 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2024 | Wake Forest 34–30 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2023 | Wake Forest 6–26 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2022 | Wake Forest 21–30 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2021 | Wake Forest 45–42 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2020 | Wake Forest 42–45 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2019 | Wake Forest 44–10 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2018 | Wake Forest 27–23 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2017 | Wake Forest 30–24 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2016 | Wake Forest 16–33 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2015 | Wake Forest 17–35 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2014 | Wake Forest 13–42 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2013 | Wake Forest 28–13 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2012 | Wake Forest 6–37 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2011 | Wake Forest 34–27 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2010 | Wake Forest 3–38 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2009 | Wake Forest 30–24 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2008 | Wake Forest 17–21 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2007 | Wake Forest 38–18 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2006 | Wake Forest 25–23 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2005 | Wake Forest 27–19 NC State | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2004 | Wake Forest 21–27 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2003 | Wake Forest 38–24 NC State | Wake Forest home |
| 2002 | Wake Forest 13–32 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2001 | Wake Forest 14–17 NC State | Wake Forest home |
| 2000 | Wake Forest 14–32 NC State | NC State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jake Dickert
OC
- Rob Ezell
career average +28.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 63rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.8 plays a game, 45th percentile)
DC
- Scottie Hazelton
career average +25.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Dave Doeren
OC
- Kurt Roper
career average +26.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 61st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.7 plays a game, 80th percentile)
DC
- Charlton Warren (co-DC)
- D. J. Eliot
career average +31.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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