2026 Virginia vs 2026 NC State
Hypothetical
59% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Virginia Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.6, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 NC State Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.2, 61st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.3, 77th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 NC State Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.6, 23rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 NC State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 171.8 pts, 20th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 NC State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 210.3 pts, 65th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Virginia Experience · returning production 2026: 10% returning, 13th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 NC State Experience · returning production 2026: 60% returning, 70th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Virginia | 2026 NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1857th percentile | 0.1962nd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0173rd percentile | 0.1620th percentile |
| Points per game | 32.863rd percentile6 games | 33.064th percentile6 games |
| per game | 19.273rd percentile6 games | 27.724th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 41st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 69th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 72nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 42nd percentile
Campus distance
155 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Virginia OL vs 2026 NC State DL | 306.4 lbs | 273.8 lbs |
| 2026 NC State OL vs 2026 Virginia DL | 308.3 lbs | 268.3 lbs |
2026 Virginia line yards 3.29 · 2026 NC State stuff rate 23.6%
2026 NC State line yards 3.03 · 2026 Virginia stuff rate 17.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · NC State leads 8–5 since 2000
Virginia has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Virginia 34–8 NC State | Scott Stadium · Virginia home |
| 2025 | Virginia 31–35 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2023 | Virginia 21–24 NC State | Scott Stadium · Virginia home |
| 2020 | Virginia 21–38 NC State | Scott Stadium · Virginia home |
| 2018 | Virginia 21–35 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2012 | Virginia 33–6 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2011 | Virginia 14–28 NC State | Scott Stadium · Virginia home |
| 2007 | Virginia 24–29 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2006 | Virginia 14–7 NC State | Scott Stadium · Virginia home |
| 2003 | Virginia 37–51 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2002 | Virginia 14–9 NC State | Scott Stadium · Virginia home |
| 2001 | Virginia 0–24 NC State | Carter-Finley Stadium · NC State home |
| 2000 | Virginia 24–17 NC State | Virginia home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Tony Elliott
OC
- Desmond Kitchings
career average +22.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 20th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.5 plays a game, 73rd percentile)
DC
- John Rudzinski
career average +26.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Dave Doeren
OC
- Kurt Roper
career average +26.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 61st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.7 plays a game, 80th percentile)
DC
- Charlton Warren (co-DC)
- D. J. Eliot
career average +31.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
