2026 Virginia Tech vs 2026 Old Dominion
Hypothetical
73% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Virginia Tech Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.0, 73rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Old Dominion Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.5, 10th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.4, 68th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Old Dominion Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Old Dominion Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.2 pts, 79th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Old Dominion Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 178.6 pts, 31st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 44th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Old Dominion Experience · returning production 2026: 9% returning, 12th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Virginia Tech | 2026 Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2169th percentile | −0.151st percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0166th percentile | −0.0582nd percentile |
| Points per game | 37.782nd percentile6 games | 18.29th percentile6 games |
| per game | 20.767th percentile6 games | 27.526th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 72nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 72nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 18th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 22nd percentile
Campus distance
230 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Virginia Tech OL vs 2026 Old Dominion DL | 320.6 lbs | 267.7 lbs |
| 2026 Old Dominion OL vs 2026 Virginia Tech DL | 303.1 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
2026 Virginia Tech line yards 2.81 · 2026 Old Dominion stuff rate 21.7%
2026 Old Dominion line yards 1.87 · 2026 Virginia Tech stuff rate 36.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Virginia Tech leads 5–3 since 2000
Virginia Tech has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Virginia Tech 44–21 Old Dominion | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2025 | Virginia Tech 26–45 Old Dominion | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2024 | Virginia Tech 37–17 Old Dominion | S.B. Ballard Stadium · Old Dominion home |
| 2023 | Virginia Tech 36–17 Old Dominion | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2022 | Virginia Tech 17–20 Old Dominion | S.B. Ballard Stadium · Old Dominion home |
| 2019 | Virginia Tech 31–17 Old Dominion | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2018 | Virginia Tech 35–49 Old Dominion | S.B. Ballard Stadium · Old Dominion home |
| 2017 | Virginia Tech 38–0 Old Dominion | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- James Franklin (First season as Virginia Tech's head coach)
OC
- Ty Howle
career average +36.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 76th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.0 plays a game, 95th percentile)
DC
- Brent Pry
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Ricky Rahne
OC
- Kody Cook
no career track record on file
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 11th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.5 plays a game, 28th percentile)
DC
- Blake Seiler
career average +28.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–2–6 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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