Thursday, October 15
Compare these teams
2–4
vs
Georgia Southern
2–4
7:30 PM ETS.B. Ballard StadiumNorfolk, VA
Mostly cloudy69°FE 9 mphGusts 13 mphPrecip 5%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM ET · Updated 12:47 PM ET · National Weather Service
Norfolk · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Mostly cloudy69°FE 9 mphGusts 13 mphPrecip 5%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
50%
Old Dominion win probability
Georgia Southern 50%
Georgia Southern by 0.1
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Old Dominion's case
Old Dominion's defense is in the 85th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Georgia Southern's offense is in the 46th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Georgia Southern's answer
Georgia Southern's defense is in the 63rd percentile for success rate allowed this season. Old Dominion's offense is in the 0th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
Old Dominion's leading passer has thrown 64% of the team's charted attempts this season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Quinn Henicle · 64% of charted pass attempts
68 of 72 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 55 short · 13 deep · 4 not stated
The Old Dominion offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
48/88 · 55% season
Last game
App State · Oct 10, 2026: 10/20, 97 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
App State · Oct 10, 2026: 26 carries, 88 yds, 0 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
App State · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 16 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn HenicleQB | 5 | 48 / 88 | 564 | 6.4 | 3 | 4 |
| Ryan HuffQB | 3 | 23 / 48 | 279 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaxon PotterQB | 1 | 2 / 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max JohnsonQB | 6 | 148 / 224 | 1,572 | 7.0 | 11 | 2 |
| Turner HeltonQB | 1 | 5 / 8 | 70 | 8.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Weston BryanQB | 4 | 2 / 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Taeo ToddRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Old Dominion's line averages 303.1 lbs against Georgia Southern's 294.0 lbs front — an edge of 9.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion OLOld Dominion OL vs Georgia Southern DL | 303.1 lbs | 294.0 lbs |
| Georgia Southern OLGeorgia Southern OL vs Old Dominion DL | 293.2 lbs | 267.7 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Old Dominion: solid line, circles · Georgia Southern: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 84 recorded plays
W 10–3
33%
Success rate
−0.17
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 47 recorded plays
L 10–42
26%
Success rate
−0.24
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 60 recorded plays
L 20–46
25%
Success rate
−0.20
PPA / play
Ricky Rahne
career −7.8 SP+ overall
Kody Cook
no career rating on file
Blake Seiler
career +28.5 SP+ defense
Ryan Aplin
career +24.6 SP+ offense
Mike Mutz
no career rating on file
2025 · Old Dominion 45, Georgia Southern 10
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
2024 · Old Dominion 47, Georgia Southern 19
S.B. Ballard Stadium
2023 · Old Dominion 20, Georgia Southern 17
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
2022 · Georgia Southern 28, Old Dominion 23
S.B. Ballard Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date