2026 Vanderbilt vs 2026 Delaware

Hypothetical

Vanderbilt by 20.9

93% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

VanderbiltPreseason baseline +18.4In-season results −9.3

DelawarePreseason baseline −6.9In-season results −2.3

Vanderbilt home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Vanderbilt	2026 Delaware
Offensive / play	0.0522nd percentile	0.0011th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1134th percentile	0.0936th percentile
Points per game	24.029th percentile6 games	21.419th percentile5 games
per game	29.515th percentile6 games	25.637th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Vanderbilt2026 Delaware

Momentum

Vanderbilt→ steady (−8 pctl over 3 seasons)

Delaware→ steady (−5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Vanderbilt

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 63rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 53rd percentile

Matching its talent (−10)

2026 Delaware

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2024–2026: 7th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 15th percentile

Matching its talent (+8)

Campus distance

650 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Vanderbilt OL vs 2026 Delaware DL	312.8 lbs	269.7 lbs
2026 Delaware OL vs 2026 Vanderbilt DL	305.5 lbs	279.5 lbs

2026 Vanderbilt line yards 2.90 · 2026 Delaware stuff rate 15.7%

2026 Delaware line yards 2.78 · 2026 Vanderbilt stuff rate 18.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Vanderbilt leads 1–0 since 2000

Vanderbilt has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Vanderbilt 35–26 Delaware	FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home

Coaching & program context

2026 Vanderbilt

Clark Lea

Tim Beck

career average +31.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 61st percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 40th percentile)

Steve Gregory

career average +23.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Delaware

Ryan Carty

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 53% of its run–pass plays, 90th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.0 plays a game, 32nd percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.