Tuesday, October 13

Delaware

2–3

Middle Tennessee

2–3

7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTJohnny "Red" Floyd StadiumMurfreesboro, TN

Weather

Clear84°FSW 7 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 1:31 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Murfreesboro · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear84°FSW 7 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

50%

Delaware win probability

Middle Tennessee 50%

Middle Tennessee by 0.1

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Delaware's case

Delaware's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Delaware's defense is in the 50th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Middle Tennessee's offense is in the 15th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Middle Tennessee's answer

Middle Tennessee has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Delaware's defense.

03 · What could swing it

Delaware leans on its top passer

Delaware's leading passer has thrown 60% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Delaware has the ball

Delaware offense: 11th
Middle Tennessee defense: 9th

Show the underlying numbers

Delaware offensive per play: 0.0011th percentile · #121 nationally
Middle Tennessee PPA allowed per play: 0.229th percentile · #124 nationally
Delaware success rate: 38%10th percentile · #124 nationally
Middle Tennessee success rate allowed: 51%2nd percentile · #135 nationally
Delaware points per game: 21.419th percentile · #112 nationally
Middle Tennessee per game: 28.020th percentile · #108 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Delaware offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.27
Rush success: 40.3%

Middle Tennessee defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.09
Rush success allowed: 53.0%

When Middle Tennessee has the ball

Middle Tennessee offense: 35th
Delaware defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

Middle Tennessee offensive PPA per play: 0.1035th percentile · #87 nationally
Delaware PPA allowed per play: 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
Middle Tennessee success rate: 39%15th percentile · #118 nationally
Delaware success rate allowed: 40%50th percentile · #68 nationally
Middle Tennessee points per game: 20.816th percentile · #116 nationally
Delaware points allowed per game: 25.637th percentile · #87 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Middle Tennessee offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.17
Rush success: 42.2%

Delaware defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.19
Rush success allowed: 47.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Nick Minicucci · 60% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 42 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.0; over 41 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 51%; over 41 attempts with a result

100 of 103 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 84 short · 16 deep · 3 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Delaware offense in 2026

Nick Minicucci

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

59/103 · 57% season

Passing yards: 838
Touchdowns: 5
Interceptions: 3

Last game

Virginia · Sep 26, 2026: 4/8, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Jo'Nathan Silver

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 52
Rushing yards: 211
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Liberty · Oct 2, 2026: 7 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD

Sean Wilson

WR · 5 games

Receptions: 21
Receiving yards: 304
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Liberty · Oct 2, 2026: 1 rec, 12 yds, 0 TD

Delaware player tables

Who is producing

Delaware player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Delaware — Passing production
Player
Nick MinicucciQB	4	59 / 103	838	8.1	5	3
Braden StreeterQB	4	12 / 35	175	5.0	1	3
EJ Archield Jr.QB	1	10 / 19	137	7.2	0	0
Tyler BellQB	1	4 / 9	42	4.7	1	0
Riley TrujilloQB	1	1 / 3	38	12.7	0	0
Viron Ellison Jr.RB	1	1 / 1	75	75.0	1	0

6 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Middle Tennessee player tables

Who is producing

Middle Tennessee player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Middle Tennessee — Passing production
Player
Roman GaglianoQB	5	88 / 156	913	5.9	8	1

1 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Delaware's line averages 305.5 lbs against Middle Tennessee's 287.6 lbs front — an edge of 17.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Delaware OLDelaware OL vs Middle Tennessee DL	305.5 lbs	287.6 lbs
Middle Tennessee OLMiddle Tennessee OL vs Delaware DL	305.2 lbs	269.7 lbs

Delaware
Middle Tennessee

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Delaware

Points per game: 21.4#112 nationally · 19th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 25.6#87 nationally · 37th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 85% of 2025 PPA returns · 94th percentile
Upperclassmen: 58% · 152 of 152 with a class year

Middle Tennessee

Points per game: 20.8#116 nationally · 16th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 28.0#108 nationally · 20th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 33% of 2025 PPA returns · 38th percentile
Upperclassmen: 43% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Recruiting

Delaware

2026 signing class · #115 nationally: 17th percentile · 167.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2024–2026 · #133 nationally: 4th percentile · −1.64 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #134 nationally: 3rd percentile · 483.5

Middle Tennessee

2026 signing class · #119 nationally: 14th percentile · 164.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #115 nationally: 17th percentile · −0.78 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #109 nationally: 21st percentile · 571.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Delaware: solid line, circles · Middle Tennessee: dashed line, squares

Delaware

Offense · 2026: 20.1 · 22nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 32.9 · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3 · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 167.0 pts · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 85% returning · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Middle Tennessee

Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.5 · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 35.1 · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 164.9 pts · 14th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 33% returning · 38th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Delaware's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 2 · 47 recorded plays
vs Liberty
L 14–30
34%
Success rate
−0.12
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 32 recorded plays
at Virginia
L 3–42
31%
Success rate
−0.07
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 64 recorded plays
vs Coastal Carolina
W 22–14
47%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Delaware

Head coach: Ryan Carty
career −10.9 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Middle Tennessee

Head coach: Derek Mason
career −7.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Anthony Scelfo
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Brian Stewart
career +30.3 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Delaware leads 1–0 since 2000

2025 · Delaware 31, Middle Tennessee 28
Delaware Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Delaware: 5 games
Middle Tennessee: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Delaware's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Middle Tennessee has no clear answer on this matchup

Delaware leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Delaware has the ball

Delaware offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Middle Tennessee defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Middle Tennessee has the ball

Middle Tennessee offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Delaware defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Nick Minicucci

Jo'Nathan Silver

Sean Wilson

Delaware player production

Middle Tennessee player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Delaware

Middle Tennessee

Recruiting

Delaware

Middle Tennessee

Season percentile profiles

Delaware

Middle Tennessee

Delaware's recent games

vs Liberty

at Virginia

vs Coastal Carolina

The coaching staff

Delaware

Middle Tennessee

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Delaware's defense leads its matchup in allowed