2026 Utah vs 2026 Colorado
Hypothetical
96% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Utah Offense · SP+ 2026: 39.1, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado Offense · SP+ 2026: 21.4, 26th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Utah Defense · SP+ 2026: 15.7, 91st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.3, 65th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Utah Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Utah Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.9 pts, 81st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Colorado Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 193.4 pts, 52nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Utah Experience · returning production 2026: 68% returning, 80th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Colorado Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 16th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Utah | 2026 Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3293rd percentile | −0.019th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | −0.0274th percentile |
| Points per game | 42.896th percentile5 games | 18.612th percentile5 games |
| per game | 13.096th percentile5 games | 25.439th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 74th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 96th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 61st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 38th percentile
Campus distance
350 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Utah OL vs 2026 Colorado DL | 308.6 lbs | 270.0 lbs |
| 2026 Colorado OL vs 2026 Utah DL | 311.2 lbs | 270.4 lbs |
2026 Utah line yards 3.43 · 2026 Colorado stuff rate 31.2%
2026 Colorado line yards 2.96 · 2026 Utah stuff rate 21.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Utah leads 12–3 since 2000
Utah has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Utah 53–7 Colorado | Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home |
| 2024 | Utah 24–49 Colorado | Folsom Field · Colorado home |
| 2023 | Utah 23–17 Colorado | Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home |
| 2022 | Utah 63–21 Colorado | Folsom Field · Colorado home |
| 2021 | Utah 28–13 Colorado | Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home |
| 2020 | Utah 38–21 Colorado | Folsom Field · Colorado home |
| 2019 | Utah 45–15 Colorado | Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home |
| 2018 | Utah 30–7 Colorado | Folsom Field · Colorado home |
| 2017 | Utah 34–13 Colorado | Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home |
| 2016 | Utah 22–27 Colorado | Folsom Field · Colorado home |
| 2015 | Utah 20–14 Colorado | Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home |
| 2014 | Utah 38–34 Colorado | Folsom Field · Colorado home |
| 2013 | Utah 24–17 Colorado | Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home |
| 2012 | Utah 42–35 Colorado | Folsom Field · Colorado home |
| 2011 | Utah 14–17 Colorado | Rice-Eccles Stadium · Utah home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Morgan Scalley
OC
- Kevin McGiven
career average +26.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 30th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.4 plays a game, 72nd percentile)
DC
- Colton Swan
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Deion Sanders
OC
- Brennan Marion
career average +32.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Go-Go (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 69th percentile of 2026 FBS; 75.0 plays a game, 93rd percentile)
DC
- Chris Marve
career average +22.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Utah at Colorado · October 17, 2026
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