2026 USC vs 2026 Louisiana

Hypothetical

USC by 18.0

90% to win

High confidence — 7 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

USCPreseason baseline +19.1In-season results −1.1

LouisianaPreseason baseline −1.5In-season results +1.4

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 USC	2026 Louisiana
Offensive / play	0.3190th percentile	0.1550th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1426th percentile	−0.0480th percentile
Points per game	36.478th percentile7 games	29.550th percentile6 games
per game	25.142nd percentile7 games	21.563rd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 USC2026 Louisiana

Momentum

USC→ steady (+2 pctl over 3 seasons)

Louisiana↘ falling (−21 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 USC

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 93rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 85th percentile

Matching its talent (−8)

2026 Louisiana

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 30th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 40th percentile

Matching its talent (+10)

Campus distance

1555 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 USC OL vs 2026 Louisiana DL	318.6 lbs	272.3 lbs
2026 Louisiana OL vs 2026 USC DL	312.7 lbs	276.7 lbs

2026 USC line yards 3.15 · 2026 Louisiana stuff rate 23.4%

2026 Louisiana line yards 3.21 · 2026 USC stuff rate 17.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · USC leads 1–0 since 2000

USC has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	USC 49–30 Louisiana	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home

Coaching & program context

2026 USC

Lincoln Riley

Luke Huard

career average +28.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 74th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.9 plays a game, 75th percentile)

Gary Patterson

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Louisiana

Michael Desormeaux

Tim Leger

career average +28.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 36% of its run–pass plays, 9th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.8 plays a game, 39th percentile)

Jim Salgado

career average +30.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.