Saturday, October 17

Louisiana

4–2

Troy

3–2

5:00 PM ET4:00 PM CTCajun FieldLafayette, LA

Weather

Clear77°FN 20 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 4:00 PM CT · Updated 12:45 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Lafayette · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear77°FN 20 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

59%

Louisiana win probability

Troy 41%

Louisiana by 3.3

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Louisiana's case

Louisiana's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Louisiana's defense is in the 80th percentile for allowed per play this season. Troy's offense is in the 43rd percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Troy's answer

Troy has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Louisiana's defense.

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 26 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Louisiana has the ball

Louisiana offense: 50th
Troy defense: 47th

Show the underlying numbers

Louisiana offensive PPA per play: 0.1550th percentile · #69 nationally
Troy PPA allowed per play: 0.0747th percentile · #73 nationally
Louisiana: 44%51st percentile · #68 nationally
Troy success rate allowed: 40%54th percentile · #64 nationally
Louisiana points per game: 29.550th percentile · #69 nationally
Troy per game: 24.046th percentile · #74 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Louisiana offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 42.7%

Troy defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.34
Rush success allowed: 43.8%

When Troy has the ball

Troy offense: 43rd
Louisiana defense: 80th

Show the underlying numbers

Troy offensive PPA per play: 0.1343rd percentile · #76 nationally
Louisiana PPA allowed per play: −0.0480th percentile · #27 nationally
Troy success rate: 43%43rd percentile · #79 nationally
Louisiana success rate allowed: 42%32nd percentile · #94 nationally
Troy points per game: 28.045th percentile · #76 nationally
Louisiana points allowed per game: 21.563rd percentile · #51 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Troy offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 44.0%

Louisiana defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.12
Rush success allowed: 42.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Lunch Winfield · 77% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 52%
Usage: charted in this direction: 45 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.1; over 45 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 69%; over 45 attempts with a result

87 of 89 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 80 short · 7 deep · 2 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (52%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.8 over 12 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Louisiana offense in 2026

Lunch Winfield

QB · 6 games

97/134 · 72% season

Passing yards: 1,088
Touchdowns: 3
Interceptions: 4

Last game

Louisiana Tech · Oct 10, 2026: 14/24, 239 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

D'Wayne' Winfield

QB · 6 games

Carries: 81
Rushing yards: 392
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Louisiana Tech · Oct 10, 2026: 13 carries, 34 yds, 1 TD

Russell Babineaux

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 14
Receiving yards: 116
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Arkansas State · Oct 3, 2026: 2 rec, 0 yds, 0 TD

Louisiana player tables

Who is producing

Louisiana player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Louisiana — Passing production
Player
D'Wayne' WinfieldQB	6	97 / 134	1,088	8.1	3	4
Daniel BealeQB	2	5 / 8	52	6.5	0	1
Ja'Corian NorrisWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Troy player tables

Who is producing

Troy player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Troy — Passing production
Player
Will CrowderQB	5	87 / 153	1,047	6.8	9	4
Evan CrenshawP	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Tucker KilcreaseQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Louisiana's line averages 312.7 lbs against Troy's 286.8 lbs front — an edge of 25.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Louisiana OLLouisiana OL vs Troy DL	312.7 lbs	286.8 lbs
Troy OLTroy OL vs Louisiana DL	308.5 lbs	272.3 lbs

Louisiana
Troy

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Louisiana

Points per game: 29.5#69 nationally · 50th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 21.5#51 nationally · 63rd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 92% of 2025 PPA returns · 98th percentile
Upperclassmen: 44% · 135 of 135 with a class year

Troy

Points per game: 28.0#76 nationally · 45th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 24.0#74 nationally · 46th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 35% of 2025 PPA returns · 41st percentile
Upperclassmen: 71% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Recruiting

Louisiana

2026 signing class · #91 nationally: 34th percentile · 179.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #89 nationally: 36th percentile · −0.46 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #99 nationally: 28th percentile · 590.9

Troy

2026 signing class · #76 nationally: 45th percentile · 187.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #77 nationally: 45th percentile · −0.33 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #96 nationally: 31st percentile · 596.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Louisiana: solid line, circles · Troy: dashed line, squares

Louisiana

Offense · 2026: 26.5 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.7 · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2 · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.8 pts · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 92% returning · 98th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Troy

Offense · SP+ 2026: 23.0 · 32nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.5 · 29th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 187.3 pts · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Louisiana's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 57 recorded plays
at Louisiana Tech
L 31–32
35%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 65 recorded plays
vs Arkansas State
W 23–20
57%
Success rate
0.30
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 81 recorded plays
at Charlotte
W 34–7
40%
Success rate
−0.04
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Louisiana

Head coach: Michael Desormeaux
career +1.2 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Tim Leger
career +28.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jim Salgado
career +30.9 SP+ defense

Troy

Head coach: Gerad Parker
career −7.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Offonvictory, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Adam Austin
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Dontae Wright
career +29.6 SP+ defense; Nathan Burton
Co-defensive coordinator · career +29.6 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Troy leads 11–8 since 2000

2025 · Troy 35, Louisiana 23
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2024 · Louisiana 51, Troy 30
Cajun Field
2023 · Troy 31, Louisiana 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2022 · Troy 23, Louisiana 17
Cajun Field
2021 · Louisiana 35, Troy 21
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2019 · Louisiana 53, Troy 3
Cajun Field
2018 · Troy 26, Louisiana 16
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2015 · Troy 41, Louisiana 17
Cajun Field
2014 · Louisiana 42, Troy 23
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2013 · Louisiana 41, Troy 36
Cajun Field
2012 · Louisiana 37, Troy 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2011 · Louisiana 31, Troy 17
Cajun Field
2010 · Troy 31, Louisiana 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2009 · Troy 48, Louisiana 31
Cajun Field
2008 · Troy 48, Louisiana 3
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2007 · Troy 48, Louisiana 31
Cajun Field
2006 · Troy 42, Louisiana 28
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2005 · Louisiana 31, Troy 28
Cajun Field
2004 · Troy 13, Louisiana 10
Cajun Field

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Louisiana: 6 games
Troy: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Louisiana's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Troy has no clear answer on this matchup

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Louisiana has the ball

Louisiana offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Troy defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Troy has the ball

Troy offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Louisiana defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Lunch Winfield

D'Wayne' Winfield

Russell Babineaux

Louisiana player production

Troy player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Louisiana

Troy

Recruiting

Louisiana

Troy

Season percentile profiles

Louisiana

Troy

Louisiana's recent games

at Louisiana Tech

vs Arkansas State

at Charlotte

The coaching staff

Louisiana

Troy

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources