2026 UConn vs 2026 Massachusetts

Hypothetical

UConn by 9.4

75% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

UConnPreseason baseline −3.0In-season results +1.1

MassachusettsPreseason baseline −24.0In-season results +10.2

Massachusetts home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 UConn	2026 Massachusetts
Offensive / play	0.2271st percentile	0.2064th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0842nd percentile	−0.0377th percentile
Points per game	35.775th percentile6 games	29.751st percentile6 games
per game	25.241st percentile6 games	18.278th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 UConn2026 Massachusetts

Momentum

UConn→ steady (−8 pctl over 3 seasons)

Massachusetts↗ rising (+20 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 UConn

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 14th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 42nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+28)

2026 Massachusetts

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 7th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 23rd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+16)

Campus distance

45 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 UConn OL vs 2026 Massachusetts DL	296.6 lbs	273.1 lbs
2026 Massachusetts OL vs 2026 UConn DL	314.7 lbs	264.9 lbs

2026 UConn line yards 3.20 · 2026 Massachusetts stuff rate 20.8%

2026 Massachusetts line yards 3.25 · 2026 UConn stuff rate 17.4%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · UConn leads 5–2 since 2000

UConn has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2024	UConn 47–42 Massachusetts	Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home
2023	UConn 31–18 Massachusetts	Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home
2022	UConn 27–10 Massachusetts	Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home
2021	UConn 13–27 Massachusetts	Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home
2019	UConn 56–35 Massachusetts	Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home
2018	UConn 17–22 Massachusetts	Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home
2012	UConn 37–0 Massachusetts	Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home

Coaching & program context

2026 UConn

Jason Candle (First season as UConn's head coach)

Nunzio Campanile

no career track record on file

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 42nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.8 plays a game, 45th percentile)

Ryan Manalac

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Massachusetts

Joe Harasymiak

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 25th percentile of 2026 FBS; 56.5 plays a game, 1st percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.