Friday, October 23

Compare these teams

UConn

3–3

vs

Massachusetts

4–2

7:00 PM ETPratt & Whitney StadiumEast Hartford, CT

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · Massachusetts's case

Massachusetts's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Massachusetts's offense is in the 64th percentile for per play this season. UConn's defense is in the 42nd percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · UConn's answer

UConn has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Massachusetts's offense.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UConn has the ball

UConn offense
71st
Massachusetts defense
77th
Show the underlying numbers
UConn offensive PPA per play
0.2271st percentile · #38 nationally
Massachusetts PPA allowed per play
−0.0377th percentile · #30 nationally
UConn
45%63rd percentile · #52 nationally
Massachusetts success rate allowed
39%59th percentile · #57 nationally
UConn points per game
35.775th percentile · #34 nationally
Massachusetts per game
18.278th percentile · #31 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

UConn offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness
1.39
Rush success
45.3%

Massachusetts defense · 4 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed
1.15
Rush success allowed
50.1%

When Massachusetts has the ball

Massachusetts offense
64th
UConn defense
42nd
Show the underlying numbers
Massachusetts offensive PPA per play
0.2064th percentile · #45 nationally
UConn PPA allowed per play
0.0842nd percentile · #75 nationally
Massachusetts success rate
44%53rd percentile · #66 nationally
UConn success rate allowed
42%34th percentile · #92 nationally
Massachusetts points per game
29.751st percentile · #67 nationally
UConn points allowed per game
25.241st percentile · #81 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Massachusetts offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness
1.28
Rush success
44.6%

UConn defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed
1.21
Rush success allowed
45.2%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Offense on the field
Play type
Field measure
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Direction, from the offense's perspective

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Kalieb Osborne · 93% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays
43%
Usage: charted in this direction
52 attempts
Yards / attempt
6.1
over 52 attempts with a result
Completion rate
50%
over 52 attempts with a result

122 of 124 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 94 short · 28 deep · 2 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go left (43%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 16.0 over 31 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The UConn offense in 2026

Featured players for

Kalieb Osborne

QB · 6 games

Kalieb Osborne

Photo: ESPN

98/163 · 60% season

Passing yards
1,421
Touchdowns
10
Interceptions
2

Last game

Temple · Oct 10, 2026: 17/23, 257 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Kalieb Osborne

QB · 6 games

Kalieb Osborne

Photo: ESPN

Carries
66
Rushing yards
270
Touchdowns
6

Last game

Temple · Oct 10, 2026: 13 carries, 11 yds, 1 TD

Ryder Treadway

WR · 6 games

Receptions
14
Receiving yards
217
Touchdowns
0

Last game

Temple · Oct 10, 2026: 3 rec, 63 yds, 0 TD

UConn player tables

Who is producing

UConn player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Statistic category

Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first

UConn — Passing production
Player
Kalieb OsborneQB698 / 1631,4218.7102
Tucker McDonaldQB39 / 1111810.711

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Massachusetts player tables

Who is producing

Massachusetts player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Statistic category

Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first

Massachusetts — Passing production
Player
William Watson IIIQB574 / 1008208.272
Aedan McCarthyQB217 / 331825.500
Logan InagawaQB16 / 68313.810

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

In the trenches

UConn's line averages 296.6 lbs against Massachusetts's 273.1 lbs front — an edge of 23.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

MatchupO-lineD-line
UConn OL296.6 lbs273.1 lbs
Massachusetts OL314.7 lbs264.9 lbs
  • UConn
  • Massachusetts

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

UConn

Points per game
35.7#34 nationally · 75th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game
25.2#81 nationally · 41st percentile · 6 games
Returning production
2% of 2025 PPA returns · 4th percentile
Upperclassmen
24% · 115 of 115 with a class year

Massachusetts

Points per game
29.7#67 nationally · 51st percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game
18.2#31 nationally · 78th percentile · 6 games
Returning production
0% of 2025 PPA returns · 0th percentile
Upperclassmen
58% · 103 of 103 with a class year

Recruiting

UConn

2026 signing class · #110 nationally
20th percentile · 172.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #117 nationally
15th percentile · −0.85 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #73 nationally
47th percentile · 652.6

Massachusetts

2026 signing class · #116 nationally
16th percentile · 167.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #128 nationally
7th percentile · −1.42 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #128 nationally
7th percentile · 525.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Offense · SP+ 2026Defense · SP+ 2026Special teams · SP+ 2026Recruiting · 2026 signing classExperience · returning production 2026UConn Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.1, 61st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)UConn Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.5, 24th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)UConn Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)UConn Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 172.5 pts, 20th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)UConn Experience · returning production 2026: 2% returning, 4th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)Massachusetts Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.0, 21st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)Massachusetts Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.4, 30th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)Massachusetts Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)Massachusetts Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 167.0 pts, 16th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)Massachusetts Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)0100
  • UConn Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.1, 61st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
  • Massachusetts Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.0, 21st percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
  • UConn Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.5, 24th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
  • Massachusetts Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.4, 30th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
  • UConn Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
  • Massachusetts Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
  • UConn Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 172.5 pts, 20th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
  • Massachusetts Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 167.0 pts, 16th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
  • UConn Experience · returning production 2026: 2% returning, 4th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
  • Massachusetts Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UConn: solid line, circles · Massachusetts: dashed line, squares

UConn

Offense · 2026
29.1 · 61st percentile
CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026
30.5 · 24th percentile
CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026
0.1 · 50th percentile
CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class
172.5 pts · 20th percentile
CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026
2% returning · 4th percentile
CFBD, 2026 roster

Massachusetts

Offense · SP+ 2026
20.0 · 21st percentile
CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026
29.4 · 30th percentile
CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026
−0.1 · 28th percentile
CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class
167.0 pts · 16th percentile
CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026
0% returning · 0th percentile
CFBD, 2026 roster

UConn's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

  1. Oct 10 · 64 recorded plays

    at Temple

    W 34–20

    52%

    Success rate

    0.32

    PPA / play

  2. Oct 3 · 77 recorded plays

    vs Syracuse

    L 41–42

    44%

    Success rate

    0.12

    PPA / play

  3. Sep 26 · 60 recorded plays

    at Miami (OH)

    L 21–24

    38%

    Success rate

    0.11

    PPA / play

The coaching staff

UConn

Head coach
Jason Candle

Jason Candle

First season as UConn's head coach · career +2.0 SP+ overall

Photo: MrJacon000, CC BY-SA 4.0

Offensive coordinator
Nunzio Campanile

Nunzio Campanile

no career rating on file

Photo: Kiran891, CC BY-SA 4.0

Defensive coordinator

Ryan Manalac

no career rating on file

Massachusetts

Head coach

Joe Harasymiak

career −36.6 SP+ overall

Offensive coordinator
Not on file
Defensive coordinator
Not on file

Head-to-head

UConn leads 5–2 since 2000
  1. 2024 · UConn 47, Massachusetts 42

    Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

  2. 2023 · UConn 31, Massachusetts 18

    Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

  3. 2022 · UConn 27, Massachusetts 10

    Pratt & Whitney Stadium

  4. 2021 · Massachusetts 27, UConn 13

    Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

  5. 2019 · UConn 56, Massachusetts 35

    Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

  6. 2018 · Massachusetts 22, UConn 17

    Pratt & Whitney Stadium

  7. 2012 · UConn 37, Massachusetts 0

    Pratt & Whitney Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

  • UConn: 6 games
  • Massachusetts: 6 games
  • The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
  • When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
  • Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
  • Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
  • In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
  • Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
  • Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
  • Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
  • Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD
Compare these teams