2026 UCF vs 2026 BYU — Saturday Bias

Hypothetical

BYU by 15.5

87% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

UCFPreseason baseline +3.2In-season results +2.0

BYUPreseason baseline +14.9In-season results +3.2

BYU home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 UCF	2026 BYU
Offensive / play	0.1239th percentile	0.3088th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0070th percentile	−0.0891st percentile
Points per game	31.759th percentile6 games	34.666th percentile5 games
per game	21.761st percentile6 games	13.493rd percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 UCF2026 BYU

Momentum

UCF→ steady (+5 pctl over 3 seasons)

BYU→ steady (+5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 UCF

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 58th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 59th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

2026 BYU

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 66th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 93rd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+27)

Campus distance

1900 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 UCF OL vs 2026 BYU DL	295.7 lbs	271.2 lbs
2026 BYU OL vs 2026 UCF DL	305.2 lbs	276.0 lbs

2026 UCF line yards 2.82 · 2026 BYU stuff rate 24.6%

2026 BYU line yards 3.59 · 2026 UCF stuff rate 20.3%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · BYU leads 4–1 since 2000

BYU has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	UCF 21–41 BYU	LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home
2024	UCF 24–37 BYU	FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home
2020bowl/playoff	UCF 23–49 BYU	Neutral site
2014	UCF 31–24 BYU	FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home
2011	UCF 17–24 BYU	LaVell Edwards Stadium · BYU home

Coaching & program context

2026 UCF

Scott Frost

Steve Cooper

career average +23.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: No-huddle spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 51st percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.7 plays a game, 12th percentile)

Alex Grinch

career average +23.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 BYU

Kalani Sitake

Aaron Roderick

career average +32.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 17th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.4 plays a game, 16th percentile)

Kelly Poppinga

career average +31.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.