Saturday, October 24

UCF

3–3

BYU

5–0 · AP #8

Time TBAFBC Mortgage StadiumOrlando, FL

Weather

Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · BYU's case

BYU's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

BYU's defense is in the 91st percentile for allowed per play this season. UCF's offense is in the 39th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

02 · UCF's answer

UCF has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against BYU's defense.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UCF has the ball

UCF offense: 39th
BYU defense: 91st

Show the underlying numbers

UCF offensive PPA per play: 0.1239th percentile · #80 nationally
BYU PPA allowed per play: −0.0891st percentile · #12 nationally
UCF: 41%31st percentile · #95 nationally
BYU success rate allowed: 35%77th percentile · #32 nationally
UCF points per game: 31.759th percentile · #57 nationally
BYU per game: 13.493rd percentile · #9 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

UCF offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 41.3%

BYU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 36.1%

When BYU has the ball

BYU offense: 88th
UCF defense: 70th

Show the underlying numbers

BYU offensive PPA per play: 0.3088th percentile · #16 nationally
UCF PPA allowed per play: 0.0070th percentile · #39 nationally
BYU success rate: 52%96th percentile · #7 nationally
UCF success rate allowed: 40%50th percentile · #68 nationally
BYU points per game: 34.666th percentile · #46 nationally
UCF points allowed per game: 21.761st percentile · #53 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

BYU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 53.7%

UCF defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.09
Rush success allowed: 40.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Keyone Jenkins · 62% of charted pass attempts

Throwing over the middle

Share of charted plays: 37%
Usage: charted in this direction: 30 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.7; over 30 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 73%; over 30 attempts with a result

81 of 83 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 70 short · 11 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The UCF offense in 2026

Keyone Jenkins

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

83/118 · 70% season

Passing yards: 806
Touchdowns: 8
Interceptions: 3

Last game

Oklahoma State · Oct 10, 2026: 30/42, 265 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

Duke Watson

RB · 6 games

Carries: 70
Rushing yards: 483
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Oklahoma State · Oct 10, 2026: 21 carries, 79 yds, 0 TD

Joshua Derry

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 28
Receiving yards: 304
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Oklahoma State · Oct 10, 2026: 11 rec, 84 yds, 1 TD

UCF player tables

Who is producing

UCF player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

UCF — Passing production
Player
Keyone JenkinsQB	5	83 / 118	806	6.8	8	3
Alonza BarnettQB	2	31 / 49	344	7.0	2	1
Kaleb AnnettQB	1	2 / 3	6	2.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

BYU player tables

Who is producing

BYU player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

BYU — Passing production
Player
Bear BachmeierQB	5	77 / 116	1,033	8.9	8	1
Treyson BourguetQB	2	1 / 3	15	5.0	0	1

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UCF's line averages 295.7 lbs against BYU's 271.2 lbs front — an edge of 24.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UCF OLUCF OL vs BYU DL	295.7 lbs	271.2 lbs
BYU OLBYU OL vs UCF DL	305.2 lbs	276.0 lbs

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

UCF

Points per game: 31.7#57 nationally · 59th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 21.7#53 nationally · 61st percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 25% of 2025 PPA returns · 33rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 50% · 110 of 110 with a class year

BYU

Points per game: 34.6#46 nationally · 66th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 13.4#9 nationally · 93rd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 79% of 2025 PPA returns · 90th percentile
Upperclassmen: 36% · 149 of 149 with a class year

Recruiting

UCF

2026 signing class · #66 nationally: 53rd percentile · 194.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #63 nationally: 55th percentile · 0.04 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #66 nationally: 53rd percentile · 672.1

BYU

2026 signing class · #21 nationally: 85th percentile · 237.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #31 nationally: 78th percentile · 0.52 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #59 nationally: 58th percentile · 689.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UCF: solid line, circles · BYU: dashed line, squares

UCF

Offense · 2026: 26.1 · 42nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.1 · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 194.3 pts · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 25% returning · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

BYU

Offense · SP+ 2026: 35.0 · 86th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.8 · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 237.3 pts · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 79% returning · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

UCF's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 82 recorded plays
at Oklahoma State
L 28–42
44%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
at Houston
L 17–27
30%
Success rate
0.07
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 55 recorded plays
vs TCU
W 21–13
45%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UCF

Head coach: Scott Frost
career +4.4 SP+ overall
Photo: elisfkc, CC BY-SA 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Steve Cooper
career +23.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Alex Grinch
career +23.9 SP+ defense

BYU

Head coach: Kalani Sitake
career +6.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Ken Lund, CC BY-SA 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Aaron Roderick
career +32.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Kelly Poppinga
career +31.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

BYU leads 4–1 since 2000

2025 · BYU 41, UCF 21
LaVell Edwards Stadium
2024 · BYU 37, UCF 24
FBC Mortgage Stadium
2020 · BYU 49, UCF 23
Neutral site · FAU Stadium
2014 · UCF 31, BYU 24
FBC Mortgage Stadium
2011 · BYU 24, UCF 17
LaVell Edwards Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

UCF: 6 games
BYU: 5 games

The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

BYU's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

UCF has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When UCF has the ball

UCF offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

BYU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When BYU has the ball

BYU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

UCF defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing over the middle

Who's driving the offense?

Keyone Jenkins

Duke Watson

Joshua Derry

UCF player production

BYU player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UCF

BYU

Recruiting

UCF

BYU

Season percentile profiles

UCF

BYU

UCF's recent games

at Oklahoma State

at Houston

vs TCU

The coaching staff

UCF

BYU

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources