2026 Troy vs 2026 Sam Houston

Hypothetical

Troy by 14.2

84% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

TroyPreseason baseline −1.7In-season results +0.9

Sam HoustonPreseason baseline −12.7In-season results +0.2

Troy home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Troy	2026 Sam Houston
Offensive / play	0.1343rd percentile	0.0522nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0747th percentile	0.1328th percentile
Points per game	28.045th percentile5 games	22.824th percentile5 games
per game	24.046th percentile5 games	26.231st percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Troy2026 Sam Houston

Momentum

Troy→ steady (−1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Sam Houston↘ falling (−17 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Troy

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 37th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 28th percentile

Matching its talent (−10)

2026 Sam Houston

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 14th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 9th percentile

Matching its talent (−4)

Campus distance

570 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Troy OL vs 2026 Sam Houston DL	308.5 lbs	271.7 lbs
2026 Sam Houston OL vs 2026 Troy DL	307.9 lbs	286.8 lbs

2026 Troy line yards 3.02 · 2026 Sam Houston stuff rate 19.2%

2026 Sam Houston line yards 2.70 · 2026 Troy stuff rate 24.1%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Troy leads 1–0 since 2000

Troy has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Troy 24–21 Sam Houston	Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home

Coaching & program context

2026 Troy

Gerad Parker

Adam Austin

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 28th percentile of 2026 FBS; 74.6 plays a game, 91st percentile)

Dontae Wright
Nathan Burton (co-DC)

career average +29.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

2026 Sam Houston

Phil Longo

Zack Patterson

career average +15.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 93rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 53rd percentile)

Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay

career average +41.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.