2026 Texas vs 2026 Texas State

Hypothetical

Texas by 25.9

97% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

TexasPreseason baseline +20.9In-season results +3.8

Texas StatePreseason baseline +3.4In-season results −2.1

Texas home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Texas	2026 Texas State
Offensive / play	0.0831st percentile	0.2477th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0582nd percentile	0.1134th percentile
Points per game	31.458th percentile5 games	34.869th percentile5 games
per game	16.085th percentile5 games	33.29th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Texas2026 Texas State

Momentum

Texas→ steady (+1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Texas State↘ falling (−16 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Texas

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 98th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 96th percentile

Matching its talent (−1)

2026 Texas State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 49th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+17)

Campus distance

30 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Texas OL vs 2026 Texas State DL	319.4 lbs	267.1 lbs
2026 Texas State OL vs 2026 Texas DL	322.7 lbs	294.4 lbs

2026 Texas line yards 2.89 · 2026 Texas State stuff rate 25.0%

2026 Texas State line yards 3.18 · 2026 Texas stuff rate 22.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Texas leads 1–0 since 2000

Texas has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Texas 59–7 Texas State	DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Texas home

Coaching & program context

2026 Texas

Steve Sarkisian

A. J. Milwee (co-OC)
Kyle Flood

career average +29.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro-style spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 42nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.0 plays a game, 76th percentile)

Will Muschamp

career average +10.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: no scheme listed

2026 Texas State

G.J. Kinne

Jordan Shoemaker (co-OC)
Landon Keopple

career average +36.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 14th percentile of 2026 FBS; 79.0 plays a game, 98th percentile)

Matthew Gregg (co-DC)
Will Windham

career average +31.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.