2026 Tennessee vs 2026 Auburn
Hypothetical
60% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.9, 85th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Offense · SP+ 2026: 27.9, 55th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2026: 18.5, 84th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 88th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 290.7 pts, 95th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Auburn Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.0 pts, 78th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Tennessee Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning, 41st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Auburn Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 19th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Tennessee | 2026 Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2064th percentile | 0.0727th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0891st percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 34.768th percentile6 games | 26.839th percentile5 games |
| per game | 15.587th percentile6 games | 21.464th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 93rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 90th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 88th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
Campus distance
250 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Tennessee OL vs 2026 Auburn DL | 317.9 lbs | 286.3 lbs |
| 2026 Auburn OL vs 2026 Tennessee DL | 315.2 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
2026 Tennessee line yards 3.45 · 2026 Auburn stuff rate 16.9%
2026 Auburn line yards 3.32 · 2026 Tennessee stuff rate 19.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Auburn leads 7–2 since 2000
Tennessee has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Tennessee 24–14 Auburn | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2020 | Tennessee 17–30 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2018 | Tennessee 30–24 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2013 | Tennessee 23–55 Auburn | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2009 | Tennessee 22–26 Auburn | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2008 | Tennessee 12–14 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2004 | Tennessee 28–38 Auburn | Georgia Dome · Tennessee home |
| 2004 | Tennessee 10–34 Auburn | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2003 | Tennessee 21–28 Auburn | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Josh Heupel
OC
- Joey Halzle
career average +36.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 10th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.7 plays a game, 69th percentile)
DC
- Anthony Poindexter (co-DC)
- Jim Knowles
career average +22.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Alex Golesh (First season as Auburn's head coach)
OC
- Joel Gordon
- Kodi Burns (co-OC)
career average +33.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 53rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.2 plays a game, 70th percentile)
DC
- D. J. Durkin
- Tim Banks (co-DC)
career average +23.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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