2026 Temple vs 2026 South Florida
Hypothetical
77% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Temple Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Florida Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.6, 19th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Florida Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.9, 51st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Florida Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 192.2 pts, 51st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 South Florida Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 180.1 pts, 35th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Temple Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 46th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 South Florida Experience · returning production 2026: 13% returning, 13th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Temple | 2026 South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2064th percentile | 0.1857th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1914th percentile | 0.0648th percentile |
| Points per game | 24.832nd percentile6 games | 26.236th percentile6 games |
| per game | 26.330th percentile6 games | 17.382nd percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 28th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 28th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 48th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 51st percentile
Campus distance
925 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Temple OL vs 2026 South Florida DL | 301.1 lbs | 278.4 lbs |
| 2026 South Florida OL vs 2026 Temple DL | 307.4 lbs | 273.1 lbs |
2026 Temple line yards 3.38 · 2026 South Florida stuff rate 22.7%
2026 South Florida line yards 2.95 · 2026 Temple stuff rate 14.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Temple leads 7–4 since 2000
Temple has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Temple 17–13 South Florida | Raymond James Stadium · South Florida home |
| 2023 | Temple 23–27 South Florida | Raymond James Stadium · South Florida home |
| 2022 | Temple 54–28 South Florida | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2021 | Temple 14–34 South Florida | Raymond James Stadium · South Florida home |
| 2020 | Temple 39–37 South Florida | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2019 | Temple 17–7 South Florida | Raymond James Stadium · South Florida home |
| 2018 | Temple 27–17 South Florida | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2017 | Temple 7–43 South Florida | Raymond James Stadium · South Florida home |
| 2016 | Temple 46–30 South Florida | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2015 | Temple 23–44 South Florida | Raymond James Stadium · South Florida home |
| 2012 | Temple 37–28 South Florida | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- K.C. Keeler
OC
- Tyler Walker
career average +27.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 35% of its run–pass plays, 7th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.8 plays a game, 7th percentile)
DC
- Brian Smith
career average +34.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
HC
- Brian Hartline (First season as South Florida's head coach)
OC
- Tim Beck
career average +31.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 36th percentile of 2026 FBS; 60.3 plays a game, 9th percentile)
DC
- Josh Aldridge
career average +24.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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