Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–2
vs
Kent State
2–4
7:00 PM ETRaymond James StadiumTampa, FL
Isolated thunderstorms75°FNE 18 mphGusts 29 mphPrecip 16%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM ET · Updated 12 hours ago · National Weather Service
Tampa · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Isolated thunderstorms75°FNE 18 mphGusts 29 mphPrecip 16%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
93%
South Florida win probability
Kent State 7%
South Florida by 20.8
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · South Florida's case
South Florida's defense is in the 82nd percentile for points allowed per game this season. Kent State's offense is in the 1st percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Kent State's answer
In every matchup we can rate this season, the Kent State unit ranks well below the South Florida unit it faces.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives South Florida a 93% chance to win and predicts South Florida by 20.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Michael Buren Jr. · 97% of charted pass attempts
91 of 91 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 80 short · 11 deep · 0 not stated
The South Florida offense in 2026
Passer
97% of charted pass attempts
Some production is recorded without a player link
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
UTSA · Oct 8, 2026: 20 carries, 83 yds, 1 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
UTSA · Oct 8, 2026: 5 rec, 72 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Van Buren Jr.QB | 6 | 93 / 152 | 1,073 | 7.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke KromenhoekQB | 2 | 2 / 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dru DeshieldsQB | 6 | 89 / 155 | 975 | 6.3 | 4 | 6 |
| Nolan GoodQB | 3 | 2 / 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 | 1 |
| Deante RuffinQB | 1 | 1 / 3 | −1 | −0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ethan ThanthanavongQB | 2 | 1 / 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Realyst ClarkWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
South Florida's line averages 307.4 lbs against Kent State's 257.1 lbs front — an edge of 50.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| South Florida OLSouth Florida OL vs Kent State DL | 307.4 lbs | 257.1 lbs |
| Kent State OLKent State OL vs South Florida DL | 297.1 lbs | 278.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
South Florida: solid line, circles · Kent State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 8 · 61 recorded plays
L 24–31
41%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 68 recorded plays
L 13–17
41%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 53 recorded plays
W 14–6
45%
Success rate
−0.12
PPA / play
Brian Hartline
First season as South Florida's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0
Josh Aldridge
career +24.2 SP+ defense
Mark Carney
career −19.3 SP+ overall
Clay Patterson
career +14.8 SP+ offense
Cherokee Valeria
career +34.9 SP+ defense
No meetings since 2000
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
