2026 South Florida vs 2026 Florida International

Hypothetical

South Florida by 3.9

61% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

South FloridaPreseason baseline +8.4In-season results −4.7

Florida InternationalPreseason baseline −4.6In-season results +1.9

Florida International home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 South Florida	2026 Florida International
Offensive / play	0.1857th percentile	−0.019th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0648th percentile	−0.0790th percentile
Points per game	26.236th percentile6 games	18.812th percentile5 games
per game	17.382nd percentile6 games	12.296th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 South Florida2026 Florida International

Momentum

South Florida→ steady (+10 pctl over 3 seasons)

Florida International↗ rising (+15 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 South Florida

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 48th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 51st percentile

Matching its talent (+3)

2026 Florida International

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 27th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 31st percentile

Matching its talent (+4)

Campus distance

200 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 South Florida OL vs 2026 Florida International DL	307.4 lbs	266.0 lbs
2026 Florida International OL vs 2026 South Florida DL	303.4 lbs	278.4 lbs

2026 South Florida line yards 2.95 · 2026 Florida International stuff rate 20.0%

2026 Florida International line yards 2.53 · 2026 South Florida stuff rate 22.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · South Florida leads 3–0 since 2000

South Florida has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	South Florida 19–9 Florida International	Raymond James Stadium · South Florida home
2008	South Florida 17–9 Florida International	FIU Stadium · Florida International home
2006	South Florida 21–20 Florida International	Raymond James Stadium · South Florida home

Coaching & program context

2026 South Florida

Brian Hartline (First season as South Florida's head coach)

Tim Beck

career average +31.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 36th percentile of 2026 FBS; 60.3 plays a game, 9th percentile)

Josh Aldridge

career average +24.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Florida International

Willie Simmons

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 69th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.4 plays a game, 85th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.