2026 South Carolina vs 2026 Kent State

Hypothetical

South Carolina by 28.7

98% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

South CarolinaPreseason baseline +14.0In-season results +2.6

Kent StatePreseason baseline −8.9In-season results −5.7

Kent State home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 South Carolina	2026 Kent State
Offensive / play	0.2169th percentile	−0.056th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1328th percentile	0.1815th percentile
Points per game	37.782nd percentile6 games	13.71st percentile6 games
per game	25.538th percentile6 games	32.511th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 South Carolina2026 Kent State

Momentum

South Carolina↘ falling (−17 pctl over 3 seasons)

Kent State→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 South Carolina

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 88th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 74th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−14)

2026 Kent State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 20th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 4th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−16)

Campus distance

495 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 South Carolina OL vs 2026 Kent State DL	314.9 lbs	257.1 lbs
2026 Kent State OL vs 2026 South Carolina DL	297.1 lbs	274.3 lbs

2026 South Carolina line yards 3.54 · 2026 Kent State stuff rate 15.6%

2026 Kent State line yards 2.70 · 2026 South Carolina stuff rate 23.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · South Carolina leads 1–0 since 2000

South Carolina has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	South Carolina 57–0 Kent State	Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home

Coaching & program context

2026 South Carolina

Shane Beamer

Kendal Briles

career average +33.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Bear raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 52nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 74.2 plays a game, 91st percentile)

Clayton White

career average +24.0 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Kent State

Mark Carney

Clay Patterson

career average +14.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 41st percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.0 plays a game, 25th percentile)

Cherokee Valeria

career average +34.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.