2026 SMU vs 2026 Florida State

Hypothetical

SMU by 2.4

57% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

SMUPreseason baseline +15.5In-season results −4.7

Florida StatePreseason baseline +11.4In-season results −0.5

SMU home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 SMU	2026 Florida State
Offensive / play	0.2271st percentile	0.2271st percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0458th percentile	0.1620th percentile
Points per game	34.666th percentile5 games	31.055th percentile6 games
per game	23.053rd percentile5 games	25.340th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 SMU2026 Florida State

Momentum

SMU→ steady (−10 pctl over 3 seasons)

Florida State↗ rising (+23 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 SMU

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 55th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 82nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+26)

2026 Florida State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 88th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 61st percentile

Underperforming its talent (−27)

Campus distance

750 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 SMU OL vs 2026 Florida State DL	310.5 lbs	269.2 lbs
2026 Florida State OL vs 2026 SMU DL	318.3 lbs	273.6 lbs

2026 SMU line yards 2.75 · 2026 Florida State stuff rate 19.1%

2026 Florida State line yards 3.45 · 2026 SMU stuff rate 23.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · SMU leads 2–0 since 2000

SMU has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	SMU 27–24 Florida State	Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home
2024	SMU 42–16 Florida State	Gerald J. Ford Stadium · SMU home

Coaching & program context

2026 SMU

Rhett Lashlee

Garin Justice (co-OC)
Rob Likens (co-OC)

career average +30.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 77th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.2 plays a game, 67th percentile)

Maurice Crum Jr. (co-DC)
Rickey Hunley Jr. (co-DC)

career average +21.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Florida State

Mike Norvell

Tim Harris Jr.

career average +29.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 21st percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.3 plays a game, 34th percentile)

Tony White

career average +21.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.