Saturday, October 17

SMU

4–1 · AP #24

Virginia

4–2

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTGerald J. Ford StadiumUniversity Park, TX

Weather

Partly cloudy65°FNE 10 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

University Park · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy65°FNE 10 mphGusts 17 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

69%

SMU win probability

Virginia 31%

SMU by 7.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · SMU's case

SMU's defense leads its matchup in allowed

SMU's defense is in the 73rd percentile for success rate allowed this season. Virginia's offense is in the 55th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Virginia's answer

Virginia has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against SMU's defense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives SMU a 69% chance to win and predicts SMU by 7.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When SMU has the ball

SMU offense: 71st
Virginia defense: 73rd

Show the underlying numbers

SMU offensive per play: 0.2271st percentile · #38 nationally
Virginia PPA allowed per play: −0.0173rd percentile · #38 nationally
SMU success rate: 49%82nd percentile · #26 nationally
Virginia success rate allowed: 37%70th percentile · #42 nationally
SMU points per game: 34.666th percentile · #46 nationally
Virginia per game: 19.273rd percentile · #37 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

SMU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 45.5%

Virginia defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.23
Rush success allowed: 42.6%

When Virginia has the ball

Virginia offense: 57th
SMU defense: 58th

Show the underlying numbers

Virginia offensive PPA per play: 0.1857th percentile · #54 nationally
SMU PPA allowed per play: 0.0458th percentile · #55 nationally
Virginia success rate: 44%55th percentile · #62 nationally
SMU success rate allowed: 37%73rd percentile · #38 nationally
Virginia points per game: 32.863rd percentile · #52 nationally
SMU points allowed per game: 23.053rd percentile · #65 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Virginia offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.11
Rush success: 49.7%

SMU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.43
Rush success allowed: 45.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Kevin Jennings · 89% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 52%
Usage: charted in this direction: 63 attempts
Yards / attempt: 11.0; over 62 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 74%; over 62 attempts with a result

121 of 126 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 104 short · 17 deep · 5 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (52%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 14.0 over 28 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The SMU offense in 2026

Kevin Jennings

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

117/156 · 75% season

Passing yards: 1,613
Touchdowns: 14
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Boston College · Oct 3, 2026: 20/30, 160 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Kendrick Raphael

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 77
Rushing yards: 418
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Boston College · Oct 3, 2026: 15 carries, 45 yds, 1 TD

Yamir Knight

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 29
Receiving yards: 367
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Boston College · Oct 3, 2026: 2 rec, 22 yds, 0 TD

SMU player tables

Who is producing

SMU player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

SMU — Passing production
Player
Kevin JenningsQB	5	117 / 156	1,613	10.3	14	5
Ty HawkinsQB	1	11 / 13	104	8.0	2	0
Charlie FiserQB	1	1 / 2	8	4.0	0	0
Cole LeinartQB	1	1 / 1	5	5.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Virginia player tables

Who is producing

Virginia player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Virginia — Passing production
Player
Beau PribulaQB	6	91 / 137	1,080	7.9	13	1
Eli HolsteinQB	2	12 / 18	180	10.0	3	0
Cole GeerQB	2	3 / 7	45	6.4	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

SMU's line averages 310.5 lbs against Virginia's 268.3 lbs front — an edge of 42.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
SMU OLSMU OL vs Virginia DL	310.5 lbs	268.3 lbs
Virginia OLVirginia OL vs SMU DL	306.4 lbs	273.6 lbs

SMU
Virginia

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

SMU

Points per game: 34.6#46 nationally · 66th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 23.0#65 nationally · 53rd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 57% of 2025 PPA returns · 64th percentile
Upperclassmen: 45% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Virginia

Points per game: 32.8#52 nationally · 63rd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 19.2#37 nationally · 73rd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 10% of 2025 PPA returns · 13th percentile
Upperclassmen: 66% · 121 of 121 with a class year

Recruiting

SMU

2026 signing class · #32 nationally: 77th percentile · 225.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #51 nationally: 64th percentile · 0.30 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #31 nationally: 78th percentile · 764.5

Virginia

2026 signing class · #111 nationally: 20th percentile · 171.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #75 nationally: 46th percentile · −0.26 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #53 nationally: 62nd percentile · 700.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

SMU: solid line, circles · Virginia: dashed line, squares

SMU

Offense · 2026: 34.2 · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.0 · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4 · 3rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 225.8 pts · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 57% returning · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Virginia

Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.6 · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.3 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 171.8 pts · 20th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 10% returning · 13th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

SMU's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 3 · 64 recorded plays
vs Boston College
W 25–16
36%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 78 recorded plays
vs Missouri State
W 34–24
55%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 82 recorded plays
at Louisville
L 31–41
43%
Success rate
0.00
PPA / play

The coaching staff

SMU

Head coach: Rhett Lashlee
career +11.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Garin Justice
Co-offensive coordinator · career +30.1 SP+ offense; Rob Likens
Co-offensive coordinator · career +30.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Maurice Crum Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +21.2 SP+ defense; Rickey Hunley Jr.
Co-defensive coordinator · career +21.2 SP+ defense

Virginia

Head coach: Tony Elliott
career −3.4 SP+ overall
Photo: Virginia Office of the Governor, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Desmond Kitchings
career +22.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: John Rudzinski
career +26.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

SMU leads 1–0 since 2000

2024 · SMU 33, Virginia 7
Scott Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

SMU: 5 games
Virginia: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

SMU's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Virginia has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When SMU has the ball

SMU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Virginia defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Virginia has the ball

Virginia offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

SMU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Kevin Jennings

Kendrick Raphael

Yamir Knight

SMU player production

Virginia player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

SMU

Virginia

Recruiting

SMU

Virginia

Season percentile profiles

SMU

Virginia

SMU's recent games

vs Boston College

vs Missouri State

at Louisville

The coaching staff

SMU

Virginia

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

SMU's defense leads its matchup in allowed