2026 Pittsburgh vs 2026 Virginia Tech
Hypothetical
57% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Pittsburgh Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.7, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.0, 73rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.4, 82nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.4, 68th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 214.1 pts, 69th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.2 pts, 79th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning, 51st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 44th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Pittsburgh | 2026 Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1857th percentile | 0.2169th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 34.872nd percentile6 games | 37.782nd percentile6 games |
| per game | 14.790th percentile6 games | 20.767th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 66th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 72nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 72nd percentile
Campus distance
225 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pittsburgh OL vs 2026 Virginia Tech DL | 310.3 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
| 2026 Virginia Tech OL vs 2026 Pittsburgh DL | 320.6 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
2026 Pittsburgh line yards 3.16 · 2026 Virginia Tech stuff rate 36.6%
2026 Virginia Tech line yards 2.81 · 2026 Pittsburgh stuff rate 30.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Pittsburgh leads 11–6 since 2000
Pittsburgh has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Pittsburgh 35–33 Virginia Tech | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2023 | Pittsburgh 21–38 Virginia Tech | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2022 | Pittsburgh 45–29 Virginia Tech | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2021 | Pittsburgh 28–7 Virginia Tech | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2020 | Pittsburgh 47–14 Virginia Tech | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2019 | Pittsburgh 0–28 Virginia Tech | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2018 | Pittsburgh 52–22 Virginia Tech | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2017 | Pittsburgh 14–20 Virginia Tech | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2016 | Pittsburgh 36–39 Virginia Tech | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2015 | Pittsburgh 17–13 Virginia Tech | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2014 | Pittsburgh 21–16 Virginia Tech | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2013 | Pittsburgh 9–19 Virginia Tech | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2012 | Pittsburgh 35–17 Virginia Tech | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2003 | Pittsburgh 31–28 Virginia Tech | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2002 | Pittsburgh 28–21 Virginia Tech | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2001 | Pittsburgh 38–7 Virginia Tech | Pittsburgh home |
| 2000 | Pittsburgh 34–37 Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Pat Narduzzi
OC
- Kade Bell
career average +30.5 SP+ offense
Scheme: Hurry-up, no-huddle spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 82nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.3 plays a game, 89th percentile)
DC
- Cory Sanders
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- James Franklin (First season as Virginia Tech's head coach)
OC
- Ty Howle
career average +36.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 76th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.0 plays a game, 95th percentile)
DC
- Brent Pry
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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