Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
5–1
at
Boston College
2–3
12:00 PM ETAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)Chestnut Hill, MA
Partly cloudy48°FNW 18 mphGusts 38 mphPrecip 7%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:04 PM ET · National Weather Service
Chestnut Hill · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy48°FNW 18 mphGusts 38 mphPrecip 7%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
74%
Pittsburgh win probability
Boston College 26%
Pittsburgh by 9.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Pittsburgh's case
Pittsburgh's defense is in the 96th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Boston College's offense is in the 18th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Boston College's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against Pittsburgh's defense.
03 · What could swing it
Pittsburgh's leading passer has thrown 66% of the team's charted attempts this season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Mason Heintschel · 66% of charted pass attempts
147 of 148 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 6 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 6 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 126 short · 21 deep · 1 not stated
The Pittsburgh offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
98/148 · 66% season
Last game
Virginia Tech · Oct 2, 2026: 10/18, 113 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Last game
North Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 15 carries, 49 yds, 0 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
North Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 6 rec, 50 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason HeintschelQB | 5 | 98 / 148 | 1,304 | 8.8 | 14 | 1 |
| Holden GerinerQB | 4 | 46 / 70 | 438 | 6.3 | 2 | 2 |
| Corey DaileyQB | 1 | 3 / 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 1 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McKenzieQB | 5 | 81 / 139 | 967 | 7.0 | 5 | 5 |
| Landon WrightWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Pittsburgh's line averages 310.3 lbs against Boston College's 265.9 lbs front — an edge of 44.4 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh OLPittsburgh OL vs Boston College DL | 310.3 lbs | 265.9 lbs |
| Boston College OLBoston College OL vs Pittsburgh DL | 308.7 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Pittsburgh: solid line, circles · Boston College: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 86 recorded plays
L 17–21
41%
Success rate
−0.14
PPA / play
Oct 2 · 62 recorded plays
W 35–33
29%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 42 recorded plays
vs FCS
W 59–0
60%
Success rate
0.73
PPA / play
Kade Bell
career +30.5 SP+ offense
Cory Sanders
no career rating on file
2025 · Pittsburgh 48, Boston College 7
Acrisure Stadium
2024 · Boston College 34, Pittsburgh 23
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2023 · Pittsburgh 24, Boston College 16
Acrisure Stadium
2020 · Boston College 31, Pittsburgh 30
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2019 · Boston College 26, Pittsburgh 19
Acrisure Stadium
2014 · Pittsburgh 30, Boston College 20
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2004 · Pittsburgh 20, Boston College 17
Acrisure Stadium
2003 · Pittsburgh 24, Boston College 13
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2002 · Pittsburgh 19, Boston College 16
Acrisure Stadium
2001 · Boston College 45, Pittsburgh 7
2000 · Pittsburgh 42, Boston College 26
Evidence window: 2026 season to date