2026 Pittsburgh vs 2026 UCF

Hypothetical

Pittsburgh by 8.2

72% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

PittsburghPreseason baseline +9.4In-season results +1.5

UCFPreseason baseline +3.2In-season results +2.0

Pittsburgh home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Pittsburgh	2026 UCF
Offensive / play	0.1857th percentile	0.1239th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0685th percentile	0.0070th percentile
Points per game	34.872nd percentile6 games	31.759th percentile6 games
per game	14.790th percentile6 games	21.761st percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Pittsburgh2026 UCF

Momentum

Pittsburgh↗ rising (+13 pctl over 3 seasons)

UCF→ steady (+5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Pittsburgh

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 66th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 74th percentile

Matching its talent (+9)

2026 UCF

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 58th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 59th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

Campus distance

820 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Pittsburgh OL vs 2026 UCF DL	310.3 lbs	276.0 lbs
2026 UCF OL vs 2026 Pittsburgh DL	295.7 lbs	267.1 lbs

2026 Pittsburgh line yards 3.16 · 2026 UCF stuff rate 20.3%

2026 UCF line yards 2.82 · 2026 Pittsburgh stuff rate 30.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Pittsburgh leads 3–1 since 2000

Pittsburgh has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Pittsburgh 12–7 UCF	Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home
2019	Pittsburgh 35–34 UCF	Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home
2018	Pittsburgh 14–45 UCF	FBC Mortgage Stadium · UCF home
2006	Pittsburgh 52–7 UCF	UCF home

Coaching & program context

2026 Pittsburgh

Pat Narduzzi

Kade Bell

career average +30.5 SP+ offense

Scheme: Hurry-up, no-huddle spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 82nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.3 plays a game, 89th percentile)

Cory Sanders

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 UCF

Scott Frost

Steve Cooper

career average +23.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: No-huddle spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 51st percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.7 plays a game, 12th percentile)

Alex Grinch

career average +23.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.