2026 Pittsburgh vs 2026 Miami (OH)

Hypothetical

Pittsburgh by 17.8

90% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

PittsburghPreseason baseline +9.4In-season results +1.5

Miami (OH)In-season results −4.6Preseason baseline −2.4

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Pittsburgh	2026 Miami (OH)
Offensive / play	0.1857th percentile	0.1753rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0685th percentile	0.1522nd percentile
Points per game	34.872nd percentile6 games	25.734th percentile6 games
per game	14.790th percentile6 games	27.526th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Pittsburgh2026 Miami (OH)

Momentum

Pittsburgh↗ rising (+13 pctl over 3 seasons)

Miami (OH)↘ falling (−20 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Pittsburgh

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 66th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 74th percentile

Matching its talent (+9)

2026 Miami (OH)

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 31st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 29th percentile

Matching its talent (−2)

Campus distance

260 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Pittsburgh OL vs 2026 Miami (OH) DL	310.3 lbs	259.1 lbs
2026 Miami (OH) OL vs 2026 Pittsburgh DL	299.1 lbs	267.1 lbs

2026 Pittsburgh line yards 3.16 · 2026 Miami (OH) stuff rate 22.7%

2026 Miami (OH) line yards 3.06 · 2026 Pittsburgh stuff rate 30.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Pittsburgh leads 1–0 since 2000

Pittsburgh has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Pittsburgh 59–14 Miami (OH)	Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home

Coaching & program context

2026 Pittsburgh

Pat Narduzzi

Kade Bell

career average +30.5 SP+ offense

Scheme: Hurry-up, no-huddle spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 82nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.3 plays a game, 89th percentile)

Cory Sanders

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Miami (OH)

Chuck Martin

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 46th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.0 plays a game, 5th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.