Saturday, October 17

Miami (OH)

3–3

Akron

1–5

3:30 PM ETYager StadiumOxford, OH

Weather

Clear53°FN 9 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 10:38 AM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Oxford · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear53°FN 9 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

80%

Miami (OH) win probability

Akron 20%

Miami (OH) by 11.7

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.7 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Miami (OH)'s case

Miami (OH)'s offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Miami (OH)'s offense is in the 53rd percentile for per play this season. Akron's defense is in the 4th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Akron's answer

Akron's offense leads its matchup in

Akron's offense is in the 45th percentile for success rate this season. Miami (OH)'s defense is in the 22nd percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Miami (OH) a 80% chance to win and predicts Miami (OH) by 11.7 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.7 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Miami (OH) has the ball

Miami (OH) offense: 53rd
Akron defense: 4th

Show the underlying numbers

Miami (OH) offensive PPA per play: 0.1753rd percentile · #61 nationally
Akron PPA allowed per play: 0.254th percentile · #130 nationally
Miami (OH) success rate: 40%27th percentile · #101 nationally
Akron success rate allowed: 45%18th percentile · #113 nationally
Miami (OH) points per game: 25.734th percentile · #90 nationally
Akron per game: 32.213th percentile · #120 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Miami (OH) offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.44
Rush success: 39.7%

Akron defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.30
Rush success allowed: 51.4%

When Akron has the ball

Akron offense: 32nd
Miami (OH) defense: 22nd

Show the underlying numbers

Akron offensive PPA per play: 0.0932nd percentile · #91 nationally
Miami (OH) PPA allowed per play: 0.1522nd percentile · #104 nationally
Akron success rate: 43%45th percentile · #77 nationally
Miami (OH) success rate allowed: 44%22nd percentile · #108 nationally
Akron points per game: 19.715th percentile · #117 nationally
Miami (OH) points allowed per game: 27.526th percentile · #100 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Akron offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.10
Rush success: 47.0%

Miami (OH) defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.34
Rush success allowed: 43.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

David McComb · 77% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 47%
Usage: charted in this direction: 48 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.7; over 48 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 60%; over 48 attempts with a result

102 of 103 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 75 short · 27 deep · 1 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Miami (OH) offense in 2026

David McComb

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

65/103 · 63% season

Passing yards: 1,120
Touchdowns: 7
Interception: 1

Last game

UConn · Sep 26, 2026: 19/29, 312 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Rodney Nelson

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 55
Rushing yards: 206
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

Massachusetts · Oct 10, 2026: 11 carries, 52 yds, 0 TD

Lynel Billups-Williams

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 19
Receiving yards: 265
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Bowling Green · Oct 3, 2026: 4 rec, 75 yds, 1 TD

Miami (OH) player tables

Who is producing

Miami (OH) player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Miami (OH) — Passing production
Player
David McCombQB	4	65 / 103	1,120	10.9	7	1
Caleb HeavnerQB	5	30 / 53	329	6.2	1	1
Damarion WittenWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Akron player tables

Who is producing

Akron player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Akron — Passing production
Player
Brayden RoggowQB	6	70 / 119	834	7.0	6	5
Cibastian BroughtonQB	3	53 / 66	380	5.8	4	0
Jordan GantRB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1
Semaj BealsQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Miami (OH)'s line averages 299.1 lbs against Akron's 263.7 lbs front — an edge of 35.4 lbs a man.

Akron's front average is based on 23 of 25 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Miami (OH) OLMiami (OH) OL vs Akron DL	299.1 lbs	263.7 lbs
Akron OLAkron OL vs Miami (OH) DL	299.4 lbs	259.1 lbs

Miami (OH)
Akron

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Miami (OH)

Points per game: 25.7#90 nationally · 34th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 27.5#100 nationally · 26th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 14% of 2025 PPA returns · 17th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 121 of 121 with a class year

Akron

Points per game: 19.7#117 nationally · 15th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 32.2#120 nationally · 13th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 92% of 2025 PPA returns · 97th percentile
Upperclassmen: 56% · 135 of 135 with a class year

Recruiting

Miami (OH)

2026 signing class · #105 nationally: 24th percentile · 175.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #87 nationally: 37th percentile · −0.45 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #86 nationally: 38th percentile · 621.4

Akron

2026 signing class · #132 nationally: 4th percentile · 147.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #127 nationally: 8th percentile · −1.18 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #121 nationally: 12th percentile · 546.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Miami (OH): solid line, circles · Akron: dashed line, squares

Miami (OH)

Offense · 2026: 22.2 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.6 · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 175.9 pts · 24th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Akron

Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.0 · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 36.9 · 5th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.5 · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 147.4 pts · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 92% returning · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Miami (OH)'s recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 58 recorded plays
at Massachusetts
W 20–19
33%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
vs Bowling Green
L 20–24
38%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 62 recorded plays
vs UConn
W 24–21
42%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Miami (OH)

Head coach: Chuck Martin
career −6.2 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Akron

Head coach: Joe Moorhead
career −8.3 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Tim Tibesar
career +32.7 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Miami (OH) leads 17–6 since 2000

2025 · Miami (OH) 20, Akron 7
InfoCision Stadium
2023 · Miami (OH) 19, Akron 0
Yager Stadium
2022 · Miami (OH) 27, Akron 9
InfoCision Stadium
2021 · Miami (OH) 34, Akron 21
Yager Stadium
2020 · Miami (OH) 38, Akron 7
InfoCision Stadium
2019 · Miami (OH) 20, Akron 17
Yager Stadium
2018 · Miami (OH) 41, Akron 17
InfoCision Stadium
2017 · Miami (OH) 24, Akron 14
Yager Stadium
2016 · Akron 35, Miami (OH) 13
InfoCision Stadium
2015 · Akron 37, Miami (OH) 28
Yager Stadium
2014 · Akron 29, Miami (OH) 19
InfoCision Stadium
2013 · Akron 24, Miami (OH) 17
Yager Stadium
2012 · Miami (OH) 56, Akron 49
InfoCision Stadium
2011 · Miami (OH) 35, Akron 3
Yager Stadium
2010 · Miami (OH) 19, Akron 14
InfoCision Stadium
2007 · Miami (OH) 7, Akron 0
Yager Stadium
2006 · Akron 24, Miami (OH) 13
2005 · Miami (OH) 51, Akron 23
Yager Stadium
2004 · Miami (OH) 37, Akron 27
2003 · Miami (OH) 45, Akron 20
Yager Stadium
2002 · Miami (OH) 48, Akron 31
2001 · Miami (OH) 30, Akron 27
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2000 · Akron 37, Miami (OH) 20

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Miami (OH): 6 games
Akron: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Miami (OH)'s offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Akron's offense leads its matchup in success rate

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Miami (OH) has the ball

Miami (OH) offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Akron defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Akron has the ball

Akron offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Miami (OH) defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

David McComb

Rodney Nelson

Lynel Billups-Williams

Miami (OH) player production

Akron player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Miami (OH)

Akron

Recruiting

Miami (OH)

Akron

Season percentile profiles

Miami (OH)

Akron

Miami (OH)'s recent games

at Massachusetts

vs Bowling Green

vs UConn

The coaching staff

Miami (OH)

Akron

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Akron's offense leads its matchup in