2026 Penn State vs 2026 Temple
Hypothetical
88% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Penn State Offense · SP+ 2026: 30.0, 68th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Defense · SP+ 2026: 20.5, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.6, 19th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 194.4 pts, 53rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Temple Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 192.2 pts, 51st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Penn State Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning, 10th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Temple Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 46th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Penn State | 2026 Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1651st percentile | 0.2064th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0648th percentile | 0.1914th percentile |
| Points per game | 30.553rd percentile6 games | 24.832nd percentile6 games |
| per game | 18.577th percentile6 games | 26.330th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 73rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 28th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 28th percentile
Campus distance
155 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Penn State OL vs 2026 Temple DL | 310.7 lbs | 273.1 lbs |
| 2026 Temple OL vs 2026 Penn State DL | 301.1 lbs | 272.9 lbs |
2026 Penn State line yards 2.77 · 2026 Temple stuff rate 14.5%
2026 Temple line yards 3.38 · 2026 Penn State stuff rate 21.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Penn State leads 11–1 since 2000
Penn State has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Penn State 27–9 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2016 | Penn State 34–27 Temple | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2015 | Penn State 10–27 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2014 | Penn State 30–13 Temple | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2012 | Penn State 24–13 Temple | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2011 | Penn State 14–10 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2010 | Penn State 22–13 Temple | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2009 | Penn State 31–6 Temple | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2008 | Penn State 45–3 Temple | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2007 | Penn State 31–0 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2006 | Penn State 47–0 Temple | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2003 | Penn State 23–10 Temple | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Matt Campbell (First season as Penn State's head coach)
OC
- Taylor Mouser
career average +29.5 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 50th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)
DC
- D'Anton Lynn
career average +21.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- K.C. Keeler
OC
- Tyler Walker
career average +27.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 35% of its run–pass plays, 7th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.8 plays a game, 7th percentile)
DC
- Brian Smith
career average +34.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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