2026 Penn State vs 2026 Marshall

Hypothetical

Penn State by 19.9

92% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Penn StatePreseason baseline +13.9In-season results +1.0

MarshallIn-season results −8.8Preseason baseline +1.3

Marshall home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Penn State	2026 Marshall
Offensive / play	0.1651st percentile	0.1138th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0648th percentile	0.312nd percentile
Points per game	30.553rd percentile6 games	22.020th percentile6 games
per game	18.577th percentile6 games	33.78th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Penn State2026 Marshall

Momentum

Penn State↘ falling (−24 pctl over 3 seasons)

Marshall↘ falling (−43 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Penn State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 81st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 73rd percentile

Matching its talent (−8)

2026 Marshall

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 13th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 14th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

Campus distance

295 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Penn State OL vs 2026 Marshall DL	310.7 lbs	276.4 lbs
2026 Marshall OL vs 2026 Penn State DL	302.2 lbs	272.9 lbs

2026 Penn State line yards 2.77 · 2026 Marshall stuff rate 15.7%

2026 Marshall line yards 3.17 · 2026 Penn State stuff rate 21.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Penn State leads 1–0 since 2000

Penn State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Penn State 45–0 Marshall	Beaver Stadium · Penn State home

Coaching & program context

2026 Penn State

Matt Campbell (First season as Penn State's head coach)

Taylor Mouser

career average +29.5 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 50th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)

D'Anton Lynn

career average +21.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Marshall

Tony Gibson

Rod Smith

career average +30.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 71st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.5 plays a game, 79th percentile)

Brad Lambert

career average +28.0 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.