2026 Oregon vs 2026 USC
Hypothetical
50% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Oregon Offense · SP+ 2026: 38.2, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 USC Offense · SP+ 2026: 38.5, 94th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.4, 87th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 USC Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.2, 61st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 USC Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.2 pts, 99th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 USC Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 310.7 pts, 100th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Oregon Experience · returning production 2026: 75% returning, 88th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 USC Experience · returning production 2026: 59% returning, 70th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Oregon | 2026 USC |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1753rd percentile | 0.3190th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0377th percentile | 0.1426th percentile |
| Points per game | 41.091st percentile5 games | 36.478th percentile7 games |
| per game | 22.058th percentile5 games | 25.142nd percentile7 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 97th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 92nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 93rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 85th percentile
Campus distance
740 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Oregon OL vs 2026 USC DL | 313.2 lbs | 276.7 lbs |
| 2026 USC OL vs 2026 Oregon DL | 318.6 lbs | 308.9 lbs |
2026 Oregon line yards 3.06 · 2026 USC stuff rate 17.2%
2026 USC line yards 3.15 · 2026 Oregon stuff rate 19.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Oregon leads 12–6 since 2000
Oregon has won 5 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Oregon 41–27 USC | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2025 | Oregon 42–27 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2023 | Oregon 36–27 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2020 | Oregon 31–24 USC | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2019 | Oregon 56–24 USC | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2016 | Oregon 20–45 USC | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2015 | Oregon 48–28 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2012 | Oregon 62–51 USC | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2011 | Oregon 35–38 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2010 | Oregon 53–32 USC | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2009 | Oregon 47–20 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2008 | Oregon 10–44 USC | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2007 | Oregon 24–17 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2006 | Oregon 10–35 USC | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2005 | Oregon 13–45 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2002 | Oregon 33–44 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2001 | Oregon 24–22 USC | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2000 | Oregon 28–17 USC | USC home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Dan Lanning
OC
- Drew Mehringer
career average +28.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 87th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.4 plays a game, 72nd percentile)
DC
- Chris Hampton
career average +19.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Lincoln Riley
OC
- Luke Huard
career average +28.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 74th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.9 plays a game, 75th percentile)
DC
- Gary Patterson
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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