2026 Oregon vs 2026 Nebraska

Published

Oregon by 5.0

64% to win

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r

View scouting report

Why this number

OregonPreseason baseline +26.5In-season results −5.9

NebraskaIn-season results +9.9Preseason baseline +8.3

Oregon home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Oregon	2026 Nebraska
Offensive / play	0.1753rd percentile	0.3190th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0377th percentile	−0.0274th percentile
Points per game	41.091st percentile5 games	39.287th percentile6 games
per game	22.058th percentile5 games	15.288th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Oregon2026 Nebraska

Momentum

Oregon→ steady (−7 pctl over 3 seasons)

Nebraska↗ rising (+25 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Oregon

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 97th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 92nd percentile

Matching its talent (−5)

2026 Nebraska

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 72nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 91st percentile

Outperforming its talent (+18)

Campus distance

1355 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Oregon OL vs 2026 Nebraska DL	313.2 lbs	278.8 lbs
2026 Nebraska OL vs 2026 Oregon DL	303.3 lbs	308.9 lbs

2026 Oregon line yards 3.06 · 2026 Nebraska stuff rate 17.6%

2026 Nebraska line yards 3.30 · 2026 Oregon stuff rate 19.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000

Oregon has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2017	Oregon 42–35 Nebraska	Autzen Stadium · Oregon home
2016	Oregon 32–35 Nebraska	Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · Nebraska home

Coaching & program context

2026 Oregon

Dan Lanning

Drew Mehringer

career average +28.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 87th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.4 plays a game, 72nd percentile)

Chris Hampton

career average +19.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Nebraska

Matt Rhule

Dana Holgorsen
Glenn Thomas (co-OC)

career average +31.9 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 47th percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.5 plays a game, 90th percentile)

Rob Aurich

career average +19.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.