Saturday, October 17

Oregon

3–2

Nebraska

5–1

11:00 PM ET8:00 PM PTAutzen StadiumEugene, OR

Weather

Partly cloudy57°FN 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 6%

At kickoff · 8:00 PM PT · Updated 12:41 PM PT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Eugene · local time (PT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy57°FN 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 6%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

64%

Oregon win probability

Nebraska 36%

Oregon by 5.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Nebraska's case

Nebraska's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Nebraska's defense is in the 88th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Oregon's offense is in the 57th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Oregon's answer

Oregon has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Nebraska's defense.

03 · What could swing it

Oregon leans on its top passer

Oregon's leading passer has thrown 55% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon offense: 53rd
Nebraska defense: 74th

Show the underlying numbers

Oregon offensive per play: 0.1753rd percentile · #61 nationally
Nebraska PPA allowed per play: −0.0274th percentile · #33 nationally
Oregon success rate: 44%57th percentile · #60 nationally
Nebraska success rate allowed: 34%88th percentile · #18 nationally
Oregon points per game: 41.091st percentile · #13 nationally
Nebraska per game: 15.288th percentile · #17 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Oregon offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.39
Rush success: 42.6%

Nebraska defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.29
Rush success allowed: 35.9%

When Nebraska has the ball

Nebraska offense: 90th
Oregon defense: 77th

Show the underlying numbers

Nebraska offensive PPA per play: 0.3190th percentile · #12 nationally
Oregon PPA allowed per play: −0.0377th percentile · #30 nationally
Nebraska success rate: 48%74th percentile · #36 nationally
Oregon success rate allowed: 37%74th percentile · #37 nationally
Nebraska points per game: 39.287th percentile · #19 nationally
Oregon points allowed per game: 22.058th percentile · #57 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Nebraska offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.39
Rush success: 48.4%

Oregon defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.20
Rush success allowed: 38.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Dante Moore · 55% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 49%
Usage: charted in this direction: 49 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.6; over 49 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 67%; over 49 attempts with a result

99 of 99 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 80 short · 19 deep · 0 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (49%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 18.2 over 24 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Oregon offense in 2026

Dante Moore

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

69/99 · 70% season

Passing yards: 926
Touchdowns: 9
Interceptions: 0

Last game

USC · Sep 26, 2026: 8/10, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Jordon Davison

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 62
Rushing yards: 301
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

UCLA · Oct 10, 2026: 13 carries, 41 yds, 1 TD

Evan Stewart

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 27
Receiving yards: 352
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

UCLA · Oct 10, 2026: 5 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD

Oregon player tables

Who is producing

Oregon player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Oregon — Passing production
Player
Dante MooreQB	4	69 / 99	926	9.4	9	0
Dylan RaiolaQB	3	36 / 55	456	8.3	5	2
Brock ThomasQB	2	14 / 20	174	8.7	1	0
Akili Smith Jr.QB	1	2 / 4	31	7.8	0	0
Evan StewartWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Nebraska player tables

Who is producing

Nebraska player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Nebraska — Passing production
Player
Anthony ColandreaQB	6	119 / 186	1,405	7.6	13	3
TJ LateefQB	2	8 / 11	82	7.5	1	0
Daniel KaelinQB	1	1 / 2	−1	−0.5	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Oregon's line averages 313.2 lbs against Nebraska's 278.8 lbs front — an edge of 34.4 lbs a man.

Oregon's line average is based on 17 of 22 linemen.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Oregon OLOregon OL vs Nebraska DL	313.2 lbs	278.8 lbs
Nebraska OLNebraska OL vs Oregon DL	303.3 lbs	308.9 lbs

Oregon
Nebraska

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Oregon

Points per game: 41.0#13 nationally · 91st percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 22.0#57 nationally · 58th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 75% of 2025 PPA returns · 88th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 127 of 127 with a class year

Nebraska

Points per game: 39.2#19 nationally · 87th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 15.2#17 nationally · 88th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 46% of 2025 PPA returns · 57th percentile
Upperclassmen: 41% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Recruiting

Oregon

2026 signing class · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 303.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 2.12 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 984.3

Nebraska

2026 signing class · #88 nationally: 36th percentile · 182.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #41 nationally: 71st percentile · 0.43 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #22 nationally: 85th percentile · 787.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Oregon: solid line, circles · Nebraska: dashed line, squares

Oregon

Offense · 2026: 38.2 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.4 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.2 pts · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 75% returning · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Nebraska

Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.7 · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.7 · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 182.3 pts · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 46% returning · 57th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Oregon's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 63 recorded plays
vs UCLA
L 15–17
29%
Success rate
−0.53
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 69 recorded plays
at USC
W 41–27
45%
Success rate
0.44
PPA / play
Sep 18 · 38 recorded plays
vs Portland State
vs FCS
W 84–0
66%
Success rate
0.81
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Oregon

Head coach: Dan Lanning
career +24.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Drew Mehringer
career +28.0 SP+ offense
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Defensive coordinator: Chris Hampton
career +19.6 SP+ defense
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0

Nebraska

Head coach: Matt Rhule
career +3.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Dana Holgorsen
career +31.9 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0; Glenn Thomas
Co-offensive coordinator · career +31.9 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Rob Aurich
career +19.6 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Series tied 1–1 since 2000

2017 · Oregon 42, Nebraska 35
Autzen Stadium
2016 · Nebraska 35, Oregon 32
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Oregon: 5 games
Nebraska: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Nebraska's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Oregon has no clear answer on this matchup

Oregon leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Nebraska defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Nebraska has the ball

Nebraska offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Oregon defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Dante Moore

Jordon Davison

Evan Stewart

Oregon player production

Nebraska player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Oregon

Nebraska

Recruiting

Oregon

Nebraska

Season percentile profiles

Oregon

Nebraska

Oregon's recent games

vs UCLA

at USC

vs Portland State

The coaching staff

Oregon

Nebraska

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Nebraska's defense leads its matchup in allowed