2026 Ole Miss vs 2026 LSU
Hypothetical
70% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Ole Miss Offense · SP+ 2026: 39.9, 96th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.7, 91st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ole Miss Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 59th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ole Miss Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ole Miss Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 236.7 pts, 85th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 LSU Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 272.7 pts, 93rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Ole Miss Experience · returning production 2026: 50% returning, 60th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 LSU Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 29th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Ole Miss | 2026 LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2782nd percentile | 0.2681st percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1522nd percentile | −0.1093rd percentile |
| Points per game | 38.885th percentile5 games | 42.094th percentile6 games |
| per game | 28.020th percentile5 games | 18.577th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 85th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 89th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 94th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 94th percentile
Campus distance
290 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Ole Miss OL vs 2026 LSU DL | 310.0 lbs | 274.7 lbs |
| 2026 LSU OL vs 2026 Ole Miss DL | 305.7 lbs | 284.1 lbs |
2026 Ole Miss line yards 3.06 · 2026 LSU stuff rate 24.7%
2026 LSU line yards 3.09 · 2026 Ole Miss stuff rate 22.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · LSU leads 18–9 since 2000
Ole Miss has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Ole Miss 32–24 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2025 | Ole Miss 24–19 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2024 | Ole Miss 26–29 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2023 | Ole Miss 55–49 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2022 | Ole Miss 20–45 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2021 | Ole Miss 31–17 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2020 | Ole Miss 48–53 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2019 | Ole Miss 37–58 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2018 | Ole Miss 16–45 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2017 | Ole Miss 24–40 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2016 | Ole Miss 21–38 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2015 | Ole Miss 38–17 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2014 | Ole Miss 7–10 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2013 | Ole Miss 27–24 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2012 | Ole Miss 35–41 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2011 | Ole Miss 3–52 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2010 | Ole Miss 36–43 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2009 | Ole Miss 25–23 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2008 | Ole Miss 31–13 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2007 | Ole Miss 24–41 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2006 | Ole Miss 20–23 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2005 | Ole Miss 7–40 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2004 | Ole Miss 24–27 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2003 | Ole Miss 14–17 LSU | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home |
| 2002 | Ole Miss 13–14 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2001 | Ole Miss 35–24 LSU | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2000 | Ole Miss 9–20 LSU | Ole Miss home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Pete Golding
OC
- Cody Woodiel (co-OC)
- John David Baker
career average +34.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 94th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.4 plays a game, 58th percentile)
DC
- Bryan Brown
- Marcus Woodson (co-DC)
career average +24.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Lane Kiffin (First season as LSU's head coach)
OC
- Charlie Weis Jr.
- Joe Cox (co-OC)
career average +33.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 40th percentile of 2026 FBS; 82.0 plays a game, 99th percentile)
DC
- Blake Baker
- Chris Kiffin (co-DC)
career average +25.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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