2026 Ole Miss vs 2026 Charlotte

Hypothetical

Ole Miss by 36.7

99% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Ole MissPreseason baseline +18.0In-season results +0.4

CharlottePreseason baseline −15.7In-season results −5.1

Charlotte home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Ole Miss	2026 Charlotte
Offensive / play	0.2782nd percentile	−0.113rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1522nd percentile	0.247th percentile
Points per game	38.885th percentile5 games	16.05th percentile6 games
per game	28.020th percentile5 games	42.21st percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Ole Miss2026 Charlotte

Momentum

Ole Miss↘ falling (−10 pctl over 3 seasons)

Charlotte↘ falling (−12 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Ole Miss

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 85th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 89th percentile

Matching its talent (+4)

2026 Charlotte

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 19th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 0th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−19)

Campus distance

505 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Ole Miss OL vs 2026 Charlotte DL	310.0 lbs	260.5 lbs
2026 Charlotte OL vs 2026 Ole Miss DL	302.8 lbs	284.1 lbs

2026 Ole Miss line yards 3.06 · 2026 Charlotte stuff rate 19.9%

2026 Charlotte line yards 2.27 · 2026 Ole Miss stuff rate 22.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Ole Miss leads 1–0 since 2000

Ole Miss has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Ole Miss 41–9 Charlotte	Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Ole Miss home

Coaching & program context

2026 Ole Miss

Pete Golding

Cody Woodiel (co-OC)
John David Baker

career average +34.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 94th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.4 plays a game, 58th percentile)

Bryan Brown
Marcus Woodson (co-DC)

career average +24.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Charlotte

Tim Albin

Todd Fitch

career average +24.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 84th percentile of 2026 FBS; 56.7 plays a game, 1st percentile)

Nate Faanes

career average +31.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.