Saturday, October 17

Charlotte

0–6

Temple

2–4

1:00 PM ETLincoln Financial FieldPhiladelphia, PA

Weather

Partly cloudy53°FNW 15 mphGusts 30 mphPrecip 4%

At kickoff · 1:00 PM ET · Updated 11 hours ago · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Philadelphia · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy53°FNW 15 mphGusts 30 mphPrecip 4%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Charlotte win probability

Temple 92%

Temple by 19.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Temple's case

Temple's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Temple's offense is in the 64th percentile for per play this season. Charlotte's defense is in the 7th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Charlotte's answer

Charlotte has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Temple's offense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Temple a 92% chance to win and predicts Temple by 19.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Charlotte has the ball

Charlotte offense: 3rd
Temple defense: 14th

Show the underlying numbers

Charlotte offensive PPA per play: −0.113rd percentile · #133 nationally
Temple PPA allowed per play: 0.1914th percentile · #118 nationally
Charlotte: 34%4th percentile · #132 nationally
Temple success rate allowed: 46%11th percentile · #123 nationally
Charlotte points per game: 16.05th percentile · #131 nationally
Temple per game: 26.330th percentile · #96 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Charlotte offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.15
Rush success: 35.9%

Temple defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.19
Rush success allowed: 45.9%

When Temple has the ball

Temple offense: 64th
Charlotte defense: 7th

Show the underlying numbers

Temple offensive PPA per play: 0.2064th percentile · #45 nationally
Charlotte PPA allowed per play: 0.247th percentile · #128 nationally
Temple success rate: 43%44th percentile · #78 nationally
Charlotte success rate allowed: 49%4th percentile · #132 nationally
Temple points per game: 24.832nd percentile · #94 nationally
Charlotte points allowed per game: 42.21st percentile · #137 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Temple offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.23
Rush success: 45.7%

Charlotte defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 45.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Cole Gonzales · 72% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 45%
Usage: charted in this direction: 48 attempts
Yards / attempt: 4.9; over 47 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 62%; over 47 attempts with a result

107 of 113 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 97 short · 10 deep · 6 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Charlotte offense in 2026

Cole Gonzales

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

79/127 · 62% season

Passing yards: 802
Touchdowns: 3
Interceptions: 7

Last game

Memphis · Oct 3, 2026: 6/14, 73 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Khamani Alexander

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 46
Rushing yards: 216
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

North Texas · Oct 10, 2026: 2 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD

Jaden Barnes

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 36
Receiving yards: 356
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

North Texas · Oct 10, 2026: 9 rec, 94 yds, 0 TD

Charlotte player tables

Who is producing

Charlotte player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Charlotte — Passing production
Player
Cole GonzalesQB	5	79 / 127	802	6.3	3	7
Conner HarrellQB	3	28 / 41	311	7.6	1	2
Jaylen WhiteQB	4	2 / 5	5	1.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Temple player tables

Who is producing

Temple player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Temple — Passing production
Player
Ajani SheppardQB	6	59 / 97	891	9.2	7	0
Jaxon SmolikQB	3	14 / 23	116	5.0	1	1
Colin ChaseWR	1	1 / 1	29	29.0	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Charlotte's line averages 302.8 lbs against Temple's 273.1 lbs front — an edge of 29.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Charlotte OLCharlotte OL vs Temple DL	302.8 lbs	273.1 lbs
Temple OLTemple OL vs Charlotte DL	301.1 lbs	260.5 lbs

Charlotte
Temple

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Charlotte

Points per game: 16.0#131 nationally · 5th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 42.2#137 nationally · 1st percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 41% of 2025 PPA returns · 53rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Temple

Points per game: 24.8#94 nationally · 32nd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 26.3#96 nationally · 30th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 37% of 2025 PPA returns · 46th percentile
Upperclassmen: 59% · 119 of 119 with a class year

Recruiting

Charlotte

2026 signing class · #103 nationally: 26th percentile · 176.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #125 nationally: 9th percentile · −1.15 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #104 nationally: 25th percentile · 576.8

Temple

2026 signing class · #68 nationally: 51st percentile · 192.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #109 nationally: 21st percentile · −0.65 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #80 nationally: 42nd percentile · 631.1

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Charlotte: solid line, circles · Temple: dashed line, squares

Charlotte

Offense · 2026: 12.4 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 40.7 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3 · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.5 pts · 26th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 41% returning · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Temple

Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.6 · 19th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 192.2 pts · 51st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning · 46th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Charlotte's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 33 recorded plays
at North Texas
L 10–50
30%
Success rate
−0.16
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 29 recorded plays
vs Memphis
L 8–59
31%
Success rate
0.09
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 44 recorded plays
vs Louisiana
L 7–34
25%
Success rate
−0.65
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Charlotte

Head coach: Tim Albin
career −8.4 SP+ overall
Photo: APocketJoker, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Todd Fitch
career +24.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Nate Faanes
career +31.8 SP+ defense

Temple

Head coach: K.C. Keeler
career −8.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Tyler Walker
career +27.1 SP+ offense
Photo: Eightlaces2020, CC BY-SA 4.0
Defensive coordinator: Brian Smith
career +34.4 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Temple leads 3–0 since 2000

2025 · Temple 49, Charlotte 14
Jerry Richardson Stadium
2016 · Temple 48, Charlotte 20
Lincoln Financial Field
2015 · Temple 37, Charlotte 3
Jerry Richardson Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Charlotte: 6 games
Temple: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Temple's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Charlotte has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Charlotte has the ball

Charlotte offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Temple defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Temple has the ball

Temple offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Charlotte defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Cole Gonzales

Khamani Alexander

Jaden Barnes

Charlotte player production

Temple player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Charlotte

Temple

Recruiting

Charlotte

Temple

Season percentile profiles

Charlotte

Temple

Charlotte's recent games

at North Texas

vs Memphis

vs Louisiana

The coaching staff

Charlotte

Temple

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources