2026 Oklahoma State vs 2026 West Virginia
Hypothetical
65% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Oklahoma State Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.5, 84th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 West Virginia Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.1, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 West Virginia Defense · SP+ 2026: 32.9, 15th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 West Virginia Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 190.3 pts, 50th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 West Virginia Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 229.5 pts, 82nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 West Virginia Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 18th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Oklahoma State | 2026 West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1753rd percentile | 0.1446th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0262nd percentile | 0.2012th percentile |
| Points per game | 38.283rd percentile5 games | 36.377th percentile6 games |
| per game | 21.464th percentile5 games | 32.79th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 58th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 85th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 70th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 47th percentile
Campus distance
965 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Oklahoma State OL vs 2026 West Virginia DL | 310.3 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
| 2026 West Virginia OL vs 2026 Oklahoma State DL | 301.3 lbs | 280.3 lbs |
2026 Oklahoma State line yards 3.19 · 2026 West Virginia stuff rate 22.5%
2026 West Virginia line yards 3.20 · 2026 Oklahoma State stuff rate 18.0%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Oklahoma State leads 10–4 since 2000
Oklahoma State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Oklahoma State 41–24 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2024 | Oklahoma State 14–38 West Virginia | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2023 | Oklahoma State 48–34 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2022 | Oklahoma State 19–24 West Virginia | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2021 | Oklahoma State 24–3 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2020 | Oklahoma State 27–13 West Virginia | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2019 | Oklahoma State 20–13 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2018 | Oklahoma State 45–41 West Virginia | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2017 | Oklahoma State 50–39 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2016 | Oklahoma State 37–20 West Virginia | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2015 | Oklahoma State 33–26 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2014 | Oklahoma State 10–34 West Virginia | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2013 | Oklahoma State 21–30 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2012 | Oklahoma State 55–34 West Virginia | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Eric Morris (First season as Oklahoma State's head coach)
OC
- Sean Brophy
no career track record on file
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 58th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.6 plays a game, 96th percentile)
DC
- Skyler Cassity
career average +26.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Rich Rodriguez
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 25% of its run–pass plays, 3rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 77.5 plays a game, 97th percentile)
DC
- Zac Alley
career average +24.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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